2020 Week 2 POTW

Last Week: 2–1

This Season: 2–1 (66.7%)

Week 1 Recap

We came pretty close to a pristine 3–0 start to the 2020 season but, alas, such is football. Great job to all the players, coaches, and staff involved in making Week 1 a resounding success (except you D’Andre Swift).

Washington 27 — Philadelphia 17 (Won)

This game played out almost to a T compared to what we expected heading into Sunday. Despite spotting the Eagles a 17 point lead late in the first half, Washington was able to score 27 unanswered, in large part because of their front seven’s dominant performance (8 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 4 TFLs). Dwayne Haskins deserves credit for his second half turnaround, as well.

It remains to be seen if Haskins will mature into an above-average NFL starter. For now though it looks like the Washington defense is good enough to buy him some (more) time to develop and prove himself.

Seattle 38 — Atlanta 25 (Won)

A 13 point game at the final whistle — this contest wasn’t even that close. Russel Wilson is top 3 MVP candidate, DK Metcalf looks like a lock for a 1000 yard season (900 yards last year), and Jamal Adams is playing motivated with plenty to prove. Seattle bettors would be smart to keep a close eye on their defense, though. Seattle allowed over 500 total yards and 7 of 14 third down conversions. Advanced stats don’t provide a favorable rating for Seattle’s D, either. Although most of the second half was garbage time and Atlanta has legit offensive weapons, the Seattle D bears watching to see if it becomes the team’s Achilles heel.

Chicago 27 — Detroit 23 (Lost)

It took a semi-historic collapse for the Lions to blow their lead against the Bears. According to Warren Sharp:

And of course we cannot let the Lions’ rookie running back off the hook just yet. Swift may very well go on to have a productive NFL career, but last Sunday won’t be the start of it. Let’s listen in to the Detroit radio call:

Week 2 Picks

(Picks are listed first)

This Week 2 might be the most interesting slate of games I’ve seen over the last couple years. Below are my full blown POTWs then a quick line about some of the more interesting games just for fun.

Cincinnati +6.5 @ Cleveland

While I usually don’t advise betting the Thursday games, this one is too juicy to pass up. After Cleveland’s paltry effort against Baltimore, this spread is off by at least 5 points and should be closer to a pick ’em. Cincinnati were one Randy Bullock-pulled calf away from sending their game against the Chargers to OT. AJ Green also had a ticky tack OPI called on him the previous play , negating a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds. If either of those plays go in Cincinatti’s favor, they probably enter this week as favorites. Joe Burrow looked good enough in his debut (239 total yards, 5.36 YPA). The effect of a short week is probably a wash between the Bengal’s youth and the Brown’s general incompetence. The travel up to the road to Cleveland shouldn’t be cause for concern, either. This game should be close — take the points.

Minnesota +3.5 @ Indianapolis

Last week the Colts let Gardner Minshew II complete 19 of 20 attempts throwing to the following receivers and backs:

• Keelan Cole, 5 targets
• Javiska Shenault Jr, 4 targets
• DJ Chark, 3 targets
• Chris Thompson, 2 targets
• James Robinson, Collin Johnson, Tyler Eifert, Chris Conley, Bruce MIller, James O’Shaughnessy: 7 combined targets

Regardless of your opinion of Kirk Cousins, he is a materially better quarterback than Minshew and he’ll be throwing to materially better targets (Thielan, Cook, Rudolph, Justin Jefferson). The Colts pass defense ranked in the bottom third for DVOA last year and made no meaningful acquisitions, leading to offseason headlines like this one:

These Vikings also hung 34 points on the Packers in last week’s losing effort. I like Minnesota to throw all over the Colts. Two additional bets for this game that I like: Minnesota moneyline +135 and total points over 48.

San Francisco -6.5 @ New York Jets:

It looks like the Jets are going to be this year’s team where no spread is too large. There isn’t a convincing argument to be optimistic about any unit on this team, either. Darnold’s progression continues to plateau and there are no inspiring weapons around him. The run defense was good last year and did a decent job with Buffalo’s RBs last week (41 yards on 18 attempts, 2.2 YPA), but had Josh Allen not gifted them two fumbles last week’s game would have been a complete blowout, rather than just a minor blowout.

San Francisco struggled in their own right on Sunday, making questions about a Super Bowl runner-up hangover grow just a little bit louder this week. This is a bet on San Francisco’s much superior talent and coaching being able to overcome adversity and begin rounding into the team that rolled through the NFC last year. If the 49ers are who they want us to believe they are, a victory by touchdown should come easily.

LA Rams -1 @ Philadelphia

Somehow this game opened with the Eagles as 2 point favorites. Anyone who saw Aaron Donald’s performance on SNF knows that was a mistake. As I write this, I see the line bouncing around between +/- 1 for either team. Let’s make it clear: the Eagles right now are capital N capital G Not Good. Their offensive skill players are a mess and the offensive line continues to lose guys to injury. Take the Rams against the spread and if you can find them as underdogs take the moneyline.

Some bonus picks just to whet your appetite:

Jacksonville +9 @ Titans: Gostkowski probably won’t miss four kicks agian this week, but I’m not betting on the Titans to cover a big spread until they sort out their kicking game.

Carolina +8.5 @ Tampa Bay: Was there anything from Tampa’s performance on Sunday that would warrant a two score advantage?

New York Giants +4.5 @ Chicago: Last week’s 4th quarter aside, Trubisky is still not a good quarterback. The Giants went up against a very good Steelers defense and it showed. Their offense isn’t as bad as it looked Monday and they should keep it close against Chicago.

New Orleans -6 @ Las Vegas: Derek Carr had a great game throwing against Carolina, but that performance is unlikely to be repeated against a considerably more stout Saints D. The Raiders won’t keep up as Brees and Kamara find a way to make up for Michael Thomas’ absence.