NBA Bubble Thoughts: Early September

Hey guys, another post about the NBA bubble means that both Jaxon and Chandon are here. The first round of the NBA playoffs is over, and we are well into the 2nd round. We have a lot of random thoughts about this first round that have sparked some fierce debate between us, and decided that the best decision might as well be to write them down and share them with y’all.

Lakers vs. Blazers

• In terms of the Lakers, there’s not too much to say. They took care of business after the Game 1 upset, where they had a historically bad shooting night. Playoff Bron is activated and AD is a matchup nightmare. For all the Laker fans it was a great sign that after Game 1 the Lakers won the next 4, for the most part, very comfortably. Their shooters started to find their groove from beyond the arc (specifically KCP), and this will be key going forward into the following rounds. The Lakers are a different team when the threes are falling and that was seen in this series. The offense becomes painfully stagnant when the role players cannot knock down a shot and this allows defenses to hone in on Bron and AD. If they want any shot against the Clips, the 3 ball has to be falling. King James and AD begin forcing the issue and playing inefficiently when they are not receiving help from the rest of the Lake Show. It will take a team effort and smart rotation management from Frank Vogel for them to get out of the West. If I’m being honest, I don’t trust the Laker shooters just yet. The Rockets defense will allow for the Lakers to chunk as many threes as their heart desires, this is the series that the Lake Show needs to exercise those demons and find consistency. We’re looking at you Danny Green and Alex Caruso

• For the Blazers… where do you go from here? Many were taking Portland to push this series to six/seven if not win it all together (*cough* Charles Barkley *cough*), but after Game 1 the Blazers failed to show up and received what we call a “Gentleman’s Sweep”. For those unaware of what a gentleman’s sweep is: when a team wins a playoff series but loses one game leading to a 4–1 win. It is called a gentleman’s sweep under the pretense that it would be rude and unsporting to embarrass a team with a 4–0 victory, so the winning team lets the other team win a game to save face. We get that the Blazers are an 8 seed but they were healthy (besides McCollum’s health issues which he played through) and had Dame playing at an elite level winning the bubble MVP. Blazer supporters are now playing the card that they were supposed to lose, but just two weeks ago they had momentum and were expecting to win. Y’all can’t have the best of both worlds, so pick a narrative. Option 1: Y’all were healthy, had Dame playing the best ball of his career, and were expecting to win, but got exposed by the Lakers. Option 2: Y’all were an 8 seed, even though there were claims that they were the best 8 seed ever, and there shouldn’t have been any expectations to win or even challenge the Lakers for the series. Either way, this team is defensively flawed and needs some offseason roster changes to compete in what will become an even more competitive West. Dame is an absolute stud on the offensive end on the court, but his defense is atrocious and the Blazers will need to find a way to hide him more effectively on that end of the court. His backcourt mate CJ also opts out on the defensive end as well. The wing position is weak and Melo, despite the media narrative, is still inefficient and a defensive liability. Melo has improved but you cannot expect to compete for even the second round if he is starting or taking more than 10 shots a game. The center position with Nurkic and Whiteside should be a dominating defensive duo but it is not. They provide an excellent example of social distancing whenever anyone attacks the basket. Right now this team will not make the playoffs next year, and it’s time for management and Dame to ask themselves if there really is success in their future together or if a split is necessary for the both of them. Without acquiring more defensive wing talent that has the ability to knock down the open three, the Blazers look to be headed for more mediocrity.

Thunder vs. Rockets

• This series was not pretty for Houston and many of the Rockets’ flaws got exposed, specifically their clutch playmaking. OKC is the best clutch time team in the league to their credit but the Rockets looked abysmal whenever it was winning time. They went 1–3 in this series when the game was decided by 8 points or less. They did get their act together in game 7 but if we are being honest, it was more of the Rockets holding on while OKC blew their crunch time opportunities. It did not feel like Houston won that game, and it was more of a feeling of relief that they were able to hold on for once. Harden and Westbrook struggled mightily in clutch time, and if they want any shot at beating the Lakers, they need their MVPs to show up when it matters most. Their three point barrage was promising at times and when they are hitting, they are very difficult to defeat, if not impossible. Harden needs to show up against the Lakers and not shrink like he did in many situations in the OKC series. The Rockets are an absolute wildcard. I still believe they can compete with anyone, but with that being said, their weaknesses are glaring and it will take a Herculean effort to get past Lebron.

• The Thunder were so close to pulling off the unthinkable. This was the first time they tasted playoff success since being up 3–1 in 2016. In 3 of their 4 losses, they got slaughtered and looked lost, and it is unacceptable for there to be 3 blowouts especially in a series that went 7 games. In those blowouts, the offense looked abysmal and was honestly hard to watch. Steven Adams specifically looked mentally checked out for a majority of the series. In a series that he should have dominated the Rockets in the paint, he got outplayed as a center by PJ Tucker. And in the final 20 seconds of game 7, the team that boasted about being built for clutch time blew a golden opportunity to send Houston home. We do not know how Lou Dort, despite how well he was playing and his shot being blocked, was the one taking that shot over Chris Paul. Gallo missing the free throw to cut it to one in that final 1.1 second hurt as well. It may not have made a difference but it most definitely adds insult to injury. Also Billy Donovan had what felt like an eternity and a plethora of opportunities to draw up an inbounds play for that final 1.1 seconds, and the best he can come up with is Adams catching the ball with his back to the basket on the three point line. What adds salt in that would specifically is that Westbrook was able to jump that play and disrupt the flow because he had remembered the play from his days playing under Donavan.

How Russell Westbrook read the final play in Game 7 vs. Thunder

• This team earned its respect and defied all the odds. In particular, Chris Paul was spectacular. He completely revived his career and showed the league why he is still the point god. Lou Dort was also amazing, holding Harden for the series to 65 points on 17–54 (31.5%) shooting and 10–38 (26.3%) from 3. Dort, Paul, and the Thunder showed the rest of the league that they will be a future contender much sooner than we all thought.

Nuggets vs. Jazz

• Denver took care of business and moved on, but it wasn’t pretty. We cannot sugarcoat how porous the Denver defense was… if they want any shot of getting past the clips or contending in future years, this must be fixed. Another concern for Denver was the lack of effort in those three straight losses… besides Jamal Murray, the Nuggets looked completely checked out. How can you be a 3 seed and not be motivated?

We don’t have the answer to that and it is a question that we shouldn’t even have to ask… On the bright side, the Jazz pushed y’all to the brink and played their best basketball since the Stockton/Malone days, and y’all still found a way to win. That is respect. It is easy to bow out when down 3–1 but this squad found a way. Jamal Murray was sensational, and looked like he was worth every penny of that big contract he signed. He is a future all-star and Nugget fans should be beyond excited to watch him continue to grow. MPJ is ahead of schedule and he is going to be a problem on offense… we will just hope he can minimize how big of a problem he is on defense… Jokic is the best center in basketball, he has surpassed Embiid. I don’t think this is the year the nuggets make it out of the second round, but this team is young and will develop into a title contender.

• For Utah, my heart breaks for Donovan Mitchell and his own broken heart. Mitchell reminded the world why he needs to be at the top of the conversation for the best young players in the league. He was sensational and proved that he is the future for the Jazz. In those 3 straight wins, Utah played its best basketball in decades and looked dominant. It was a promising sign that this Mitchell and Gobert tandem can work. It was painful to watch them lose a 3–1 lead… but it may have been for the best for the Jazz. The Mitchell and Gobert duo played spectacular but I don’t believe it will equate to any long term success. If this Jazz team made it to the 2nd round, it would have signaled to management that this duo can work and lead this team through the West in the future. However, now that they have lost, it may allow for management to look at the team from a holistic view and end the Mitchell/Gobert duo sooner rather than later. I think the best thing for all three parties, those parties being the Jazz, Mitchell, and Gobert, is a splitting of this duo. Gobert’s value is at an all time high, it is time to capitalize on it now. The transition may be rocky and could result in a missed postseason or two over the next couple of years, but for the Jazz the team that is currently constructed can’t even challenge for a Western Conference Finals. I say go all in on Mitchell developing into a superstar and find a number two for him that compliments his game better than Gobert. In todays modern NBA, this needs to be a two way athletic wing that can space the floor and guard the other teams best player night in and night out.

Clippers vs. Mavericks

• For the Clippers, PLAYOFF P IS A PROBLEM!! In all seriousness, no all-star in the league should struggle as much as PG-13% has. It was promising he was able to put together a couple of good games but if the Clippers want to escape the West and beat whatever the East throws at them, Pandemic P cannot play this poorly. If he does, the Clippers are done and Kawhi Leonard will be regretting not buying real estate in Toronto. Kawhi was spectacular, and reminded everyone that he is one of the elite playoff performers when healthy. Like are we 100% confident he’s not a robot sent from the future to kill John Conner? Kawhi can carry this team past the Nuggets but he will need PG to beat Lebron and the Brow. The supporting cast looked solid, especially Lemon Pepper Lou Will, but the Clippers will need Montrezl Harrell to raise his game back to his 6th man of the year level and for Pat Beverly to be healthy. Additionally, Marcus Morris reminded everyone just how dirty of a player he is with his shenanigans against poor Luka. As of now, I think they’ll get past the Nuggets in another 6 games and I can’t wait to see their performance with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. The worst position for the Clippers to be in is a position where they feel overconfident about their level of play. Don’t be surprised for the Nuggets to grab a couple of games in this 2nd round.

Maverick fans y’all are truly blessed, even though it was impossible to beat the Clippers and the refs this series. Y’all get Luka Doncic for the next 12+ years, your time is coming. Y’all put together a hell of a season and a hell of a fight up against a title contender, there should be nothing but pride and excitement felt for this team. Luka’s legend will continue to grow and y’all are one piece away from title contender status. It was great to see players like Finney-Smith and Curry find their stroke in the bubble, and they will play meaningful minutes in the many future playoff runs this team has in front of them. The health of Porzingis will be crucial, but he is still 25 years old and should be able to bounce back. The fact that this is his 2nd knee injury does raise a red flag… The Mavs just need to keep trusting the process. Find that third piece, continue to surround Luka with shooters, and keep Kristaps healthy, and you will be a force in the West for years to come. We do think Rudy Gobert would be an excellent fit here.

The East! We’re not going to spend too much time on the first round, but here’s a quick blurb on the teams that got eliminated in round 1.

• Orlando: Y’all winning one game was impressive, especially with so many injuries. The big thing is to get everyone back healthy and to keep developing Markelle Fultz. This franchise is lacking a star or at least star potential. They have drafted well, but everyone they have drafted appears to be solid but no potential perennial all-star… ORL has two options, keep this current team impact and hope somebody breaks out. Or enter the tank, trade Vucevic, along with the other veterans, and go all in on the draft and give all the young guys 35+ minutes.
• Indiana: That was tough. Don’t expect for bubble TJ Warren to carry into next season, and for a roster overhaul. The play of Victor Oladipo was depressing and there are too many rumors about him leaving… whether they are true or not, they and Oladipo’s play are not promising for the future. Losing Sabonis in the bubble was unfortunate, but his future is bright. I am not too sure where Indiana goes from here, but first things first, figure out the Oladipo situation.
• Brooklyn: Not too much to say, next year is going to be a fun one. Fingers crossed Steve Nash can coach and handle the egos of KD and Kyrie. We can’t wait to watch the Nets next year.
• Philadelphia: I’m going to be brutally honest, we could write a doctoral thesis on the problems of this organization. That’s how bad it is in Philly. But I’m going to save some time and just leave at this: this franchise is the laughing stock of the league. All those embarrassing years to only be mediocre is exactly what the “process” was meant to avoid. But here we are, the Sixers have bungled the process through horrid contracts, poor coaching, and even poorer player development. It can be salvaged but it will take one of the league’s brightest minds to do it, and unfortunately, none of them currently reside in Philadelphia.

Bucks vs. Heat

• What a time to be alive if you’re a Heat fan. Up 3–1 on the 1st seed, the future is bright and it really is starting to feel like the future is now. This team plays a modern brand of team basketball with that old school grit, which is especially exemplified in one Jimmy Buckets. The rookie trio of Nunn, Herro, and Robinson are fantastic and will only continue to get better for years to come. Shout out to former Division 3 dawg Duncan Robinson, that man might be the top shooter left in the playoffs and top 5 in the league. If you are a Heat fan, this season continues to turn into more and more of a success and at this point you’re playing with house money. No matter what happens from here, the Heat have put the league on notice and will be a force in the East for years to come. Pat Riley deserves a pay raise. Also is it even possible to give him a pay raise?? Not to mention Erik Spoelstra is a top 5 coach in this league and the Heat’s commitment to him should be commended. He is still the only coach still in the league to coach Lebron and live to tell the tale.
• Milwaukee… you are in trouble not only in this series, but, even worse, the future is in doubt as well. I don’t even know how we got to this point. The first round against Magic was far from inspiring and those flaws the Magic exposed have been torn apart by a talented and well coached Heat team. Giannis has not evolved from last year’s playoff demise, and he will continue to be exploited until he decides to elevate his game, specifically his shooting. That vaunted regular season defense has regressed, and the Heat are getting buckets at will for the majority of these first two games. Khris Middleton deserves a fair amount of the blame, he is expected to be a number two but his play is more reflective of being the SECOND guy off the bench. The Bucks have shrunk in clutch time up until Middleton saved their season by pulling game 4 out of his ass. Heat in 5

Celtics vs. Raptors

• The Celtics look like a title contender. They should be up 3–0 but poor inbound defense and the basketball gods thought differently. Kemba has been great for this team and is really making me upset that Jordan made this man waste eight years of his career. Tatum and Brown are ready to win now and set the Celtics up for the next decade. This team should get past the Raptors and is looking like the favorite to get out of the East at this current moment. Brown deserves a lot of praise, he is playing like the third option that the C’s desperately need him to be. The supporting cast has been fantastic, and Marcus Smart should’ve gotten more respect in the DPOY voting and at the Oscars for his phenomenal acting.

• Toronto has played admirably to this point. They have defied the odds after losing Kawhi and proven they will remain at the top of the East. Their dispatching of Brooklyn was impressive, but the C’s are a title contender and Toronto struggled against them early in the series. Siakam, who is an absolute stud, is learning some hard lessons and his offensive game still needs work. VanVleet is learning some tough lessons as well, but he is still looking like a future all-star. Ibaka is the X factor in this series: he is a matchup nightmare for the Celtic bigs and provides rebounding presence with the ability to stretch the floor and open up the lane for Siakam on the offensive end. However, the basketball gods have given them a chance to atone for their mistakes throughout the first 3 games of the series. Instead of the dreaded 3–0 deficit, they have found a way to even up the series and are right back in it. If we have learned anything it is to never count the Raptors and Nick Nurse out, expect them to come out swinging for the rest of the season and to not making life easy for the Celtics. The entire east is wide open and momentum shifts faster than ever in that bubble. Jaxon is calling Raptors in 7.