Why Indians and Nigerians are the future of global workforce
There are many hypotheses on why China is slowing down. I feel this chart explains deserves more attention:
China is aging fast and its “one child policy” is changing the dependency ratios. It is only going to get tougher in the next few years as China’s population will grow slowly causing the average age keeps moving up. The Chinese government realizes this and has decided to do away with the policy. However, it is unlikely that China will be able to change its dependence ratio anytime soon.
The average Chinese will be older than the average American in 2050. The average Indian in 2050 will be the same as an average American today (37 years old).
China in 2050 is likely to look a lot more like Denmark or Japan than like America. Countries like India and Nigeria, on the other hand, are only going to have a majority of their population available for productive work.
Here is are two interesting graphs I discovered:
What does it mean?
- India will remain the center of gravity for world’s workforce/economic growth with the maximum number of employable individuals and if globalization does not die post-Trump era, one of India’s major export will be employable Humans.
- Countries like Indonesia and Nigeria have the potential of becoming other knowledge centers
- China will keep slowing down, but it will still be a behemoth given its significant denominator. China will look a lot more like EU does now.
- It will be crippling for the youth to live in Europe as the continent becomes gray if immigration policies are tightened
- EU and US need to focus on their demographic policies.
Campaigns like the one below (“Do it for Denmark.”) are relatively popular in Denmark and we’re likely to see them across the globe as developed nation-states will struggle to balance nationalism with lowering fertility.
But what about the US?
US will divide between youth centers and grey zones. I’m extremely surprised that people don’t attribute Silicon Valley’s success to its youth.
The SF Bay Area is exceptionally “young/productive/independent” for the US with 65.5% of the population in the 18–64 age group. Bay Area’s youth is also extremely well educated and has easy access to capital — a potent mix which is powering the American innovation story.
New York is similar in terms of dependence ratio, a little lower on education rate — NYC grows faster than the US on average too.