A friend recommend me the book Thinking, Fast and Slow when I asked him for a good read in the field of behavioral science — I am an entry level enthusiast. Half way thru it, everything has made sense to me till now, as has the concept of confidence/overconfidence as discussed by the author.

The less we know about something, say, a subject or incident, the more confident we feel about it. It’s like a jigsaw puzzle. It’s easy to fill a jigsaw puzzle if there are less pieces in it. The puzzle is complete or almost complete with just a few pieces.

We can form a coherent story if we have less data points. And as soon as we form a coherent story, we feel it’s true — which might or might not be the case. A coherent story is the key. We believe it and hence feel confident about it. Sometimes overconfident. And rightly said — it’s an illusion.

P.S. No takeaway from this post. Just a feeling of oh, that’s so right is all you get after reading it.