Coronavirus Lockdowns: why we must end this failed policy
The consequences of the lockdowns are claiming 10x more lives than the coronavirus itself
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Countries around the world are re-opening after lengthy societal lockdowns. Many are evaluating what activities or organizations to re-open in phases (“e.g. should schools re-open?”), and are preparing contingent policy responses if COVID19 cases increase again (“second wave”). Lockdowns are a failed policy response, are claiming far more lives than the coronavirus, and will leave long lasting scars on society. Lockdowns and restrictions on movement must end, and we must pivot to sustainable strategies such as voluntary social distancing and wearing masks.
Here’s what I’ll cover in this article with lots of data from countries that locked down and those that did not implement lockdowns.
- Predictions from government officials used to justify lockdown policies were off by 1000%+
- Approximately 10% of developed / OECD countries did not implement full lockdowns including Japan, Sweden, South Korea and Taiwan. These countries successfully ‘flattened the curve’
- Coronavirus death rates are approximately the same in countries that did not lockdown, relative to countries that locked down
- Countries that locked down are causing damaging side effects to public health
- Deaths by suicide and drug overdose are claiming more lives than COVID19 among youths
- The lockdowns are pushing more than 100 million people into extreme poverty and hunger
- Millions of people have delayed medical care, including cancer screenings and crucial immunizations
- The risk of death is 63% higher among those who experience unemployment, and the skyrocketing number of unemployed pose dire public health risks for lockdown countries
- Governments are printing and borrowing money at unprecedented levels, leaving an inter-generational legacy of alarming debt burden and wealth gaps. In the most extreme instance, Canada’s Central Bank has printed and inflated its monetary base by 347%
Lockdowns vs. no-lockdowns is not a question of lives vs. GDP. It is a matter of lives vs. lives
Predictions from government officials used to justify lockdown policies were off by 1000%+
Back in March, government officials put forth theoretical models that predicted a death rate of between 500 and 900 deaths per 100,000 residents if lockdowns were not implemented. Five months later, the real death rates from COVID19 have been between 1 and 70 deaths per 100,000 residents, and this is true in both countries that locked down and those that did not lockdown. The following chart looks at the predicted vs. real death rates from COVID19 for the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. against their historical death rates from influenza and pneumonia.
Countries that did not lockdown are faring just as well as those that locked down
Approximately 10% of developed / OECD countries chose to stay open with limited controls on large gatherings. Japan, Sweden, South Korea and Taiwan did not impose full lockdowns (“no-lockdown countries”). The chart below shows that in both lockdown and no-lockdown countries, death rates from COVID19 has been less than 70 deaths per 100,000 residents, with the worldwide rate averaging 9 deaths per 100,000 residents.
The range from COVID19 related deaths is similar to flu and pneumonia.
Japan and Sweden opted against imposing lockdowns and managed the crisis with targeted and sustainable strategies including voluntary physical distancing, focused isolation of and support for retirement/nursing homes, or the widespread use of face coverings. Sweden and Japan did not perform contact tracing.
The mortality risk from COVID19 is concentrated in people aged 50+.
“There’s far more mortality for children from flu than there will be from COVID. Influenza deaths for school-age children over the last five years, they’re anywhere from five to 10 times greater than COVID19” — Robert Redfield, Director, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (source link)
A study published by the Canadian Institute of Health and Information documents that long-term care facilities and retirement homes account for more than 80% of all COVID19 deaths in Canada.
Countries that did not lockdown have successfully flattened the curve
The need to ‘flatten the curve’ was a key justification for some states to initiate the lockdowns. The following chart shows that lockdowns were not required to flatten the curve, and that no-lockdown countries (Japan, Sweden, South Korea, and Taiwan) successfully flattened the curve and saw rapidly diminished death rates, breaking from the stark projections forecasted in early 2020.
Furthermore, these states have not seen any significant “second waves” as of yet, while countries such as the United States are seeing pockets of resurgence during their reopening.
Some U.S. states, such as Texas and California among others, are experiencing an increase in COVID19 cases. While this increase is concerning and is to be expected following a re-opening, the scale of death rates in these “second wave” communities is still of a similar order of magnitude as their death rates from the flu and pneumonia.
This post is not saying that COVID19 symptoms are the same as the flu; clearly, they affect individuals in unique ways. Rather, the comparisons to historical flu & pneumonia statistics establish context relative to the closest comparable infectious respiratory disease that we have data for, and as a comparison point for the next stage of our analysis.
While the death rate involving COVID19 has been a focal point for politicians and mainstream media thus far, the lockdowns have caused damaging side effects that are claiming far more lives.
Because of the lockdowns, among the youth, deaths by suicide and drug overdose are claiming far more lives than the coronavirus
Among youth, the deaths from suicide and drug overdose has skyrocketed, prompting the U.S. CDC Director Robert Redfield to sound the alarm in a recent webinar:
“in high schools, we’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID……a lot of kids get their mental health services, over 7 million, in school. A lot of people get food and nutrition in schools. Schools are really important in terms of mandatory reporting sexual and child abuse….So this is why I keep coming back for the overall social being of individuals.” — Robert Redfield, Director, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
According to the American Medical Association, More than 35 states have reported increases in opioid-related mortality as well as ongoing concerns for those with a mental illness or substance use disorder in counties and other areas within the state.
Communities across Canada are also reporting an alarming increases in deaths. Complete statistical data on this trend will not be available until 2021. However, even a 20% increase in Canada would translate to 1,500 more deaths (4 per 100K residents) by suicide and drug overdose.
The lockdowns are pushing more than 100 million people into extreme poverty and hunger
The lockdowns have taken away livelihoods and disrupted essential supplies, pushing more than 100 million people worldwide into hunger and extreme poverty (defined as people living on less than $1.90 per day).
The United Nations WFP, UNICEF, and FAO recently issued a call to action where they assert that “more children are becoming malnourished due to the deteriorating quality of their diets, interruptions in nutrition and other essential services,… an estimated additional 6.7 million children with wasting….,and more than 10,000 additional child deaths per month”.
The lockdowns have reversed the trend of declining extreme poverty, undoing many years of hard-fought progress. The following chart illustrates this trend.
Food insecurity is not only occurring in developing countries, but also in the developed countries that locked down. Statistics Canada is reporting that 4% more Canadians (1.5 million residents) are going hungry because they cannot afford to eat properly.
The interconnected nature of our global economy means a lockdown induced drop in consumption within one country’s borders will cascade into lost livelihoods and higher poverty in other countries, particularly those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, and those that depend on commodity exports.
Millions of people have delayed medical care, including cancer screenings and crucial immunizations
According to the Washington Post and the United States Census Bureau, almost 94 million adults have delayed medical care. Cancer screenings have dramatically declined because of the lockdowns.
“Here in the United States, 85% of kids now that are younger than five are behind on their pediatric vaccination. I now have 120 million children in Sub Saharan Africa that haven’t received the measles vaccine. And they’re very at risk to die from measles. And they’re very limited risk dying from COVID.” — Robert Redfield, Director, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a recent webinar
The outcomes from the delayed essential medical care will unfortunately be seen over the next 24 months. For example, in Canada there are 79,000 annual deaths from cancer. If the missed cancer screenings cause a 5% increase in the death rate, that will translate to 4,000 more deaths.
One immediate side-effect has been that the health-care sector has furloughed staff in large droves. As reported by the Washington Post, 1.4 million health-care jobs disappeared in April, according to the latest monthly government jobs report. Those included nearly 135,000 jobs lost at hospitals, more than 243,000 at physician offices and more than 503,000 at dental offices. Over 260 hospitals have reported furloughs or layoffs due to coronavirus related issues.
The risk of death is 63% higher among those who experience unemployment
The relation between mortality and unemployment has been widely studied and established. In his ground-breaking study in the 1970’s Yale professor of epidemiology Harvey Brenner stated that “Economic growth is the single most important factor relating to length of life. When [a person’s employment] is taken away, people become susceptible to depression, cardiovascular disease, and many other illnesses that increase mortality.”
Comprehensive studies following the 2009 economic crisis documented that unemployment increases the risk of death by 63%.
The increase in all-cause mortality among the unemployed and its resulting deaths is one of the largest health risks facing countries that implemented lockdowns.
Many countries that implemented lockdowns now face high levels of unemployment not seen in decades. In contrast, all of the states who opted against lockdowns have avoided significant increases in unemployment.
The U.K. has deployed generous wage subsidy programs to stave off unemployment for the time-being, however the extent to which it will work longer term is yet to unfold.
While it is too early to predict what the unemployment levels will be in the next few years, the record-breaking number of business bankruptcies in lockdown countries suggest that unemployment will remain elevated. For example, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business is reporting that one in seven (158,000) Canadian small businesses are at risk of permanent closure. If the 1.3 million additional unemployed persons in Canada persists, an all-cause mortality increase of 63% translates to approximately 5,000 more deaths per year.
Governments are printing and borrowing money at unprecedented levels, leaving an inter-generational legacy of alarming debt burden and wealth gaps
Central banks in some states that have implemented complete lockdowns have printed money at an unprecedented scale. This has ballooned public debt levels and left systemic economic problems for the younger generation to grapple with in the decade ahead. In contrast, no-lockdown countries have managed their economies and debt levels better. The following chart shows the level of monetary easing (aka “money printing”) measured by the increase in central banks’ balance sheets. The United States and Canada implemented lockdowns and resorted to “printing money” to keep their economies afloat. Canada’s monetary base inflated by a staggering 347%, unprecedented in the nation’s history. In contrast, Japan, Sweden and South Korea did not implement lockdowns and have managed their monetary base and economies better.
It is not Lives vs. GDP. It is Lives vs. Lives
Lockdown advocates mistakenly frame the discussion as a choice between lives vs. the economy. While their intentions may be in the right place, their characterization is profoundly wrong. The reality is that it is a choice of saving one set of lives vs. saving another set of lives.
Borrowing words from Doctor Jeffrey’s blog, in a progressive society that values individual life and liberty, the argument boils down to this:
- All life is precious
- All life is equal
- Everyone is entitled to equal protection under the law
- A’s life is more precious to A than is B’s life
- B’s life is more precious to B than is A’s life
- Any governmental action that helps A and hurts B violates our basic premises
- Therefore, any governmental action needs to balance the rights of A and the rights of B to ensure there is no violation of either
- If a lock down to save A increases the death rate of B the government has violated its basic duty, and also the ethical consideration that all life is equal and precious
Pivoting to Sustainable Strategies
My last article in April discussed what we can learn from the no-lockdown countries and outlined sensible tactics that fall cautiously short of a full lockdown. These mitigation strategies and sustainable tactics include:
- Voluntary social distancing and the use of face coverings
- Increase the immunization of the population for the seasonal flu to ease the burden on the healthcare system, hospital beds, and ventilators. With the flu season approaching, this is even more crucial now
- Shore up safety net programs for the unemployed and for families that are falling into poverty
- Increase donations to humanitarian assistance programs such as the United Nations’ WFP and UNICEF to avert the growing hunger pandemic
- Resume routine vaccination programs, especially for life threatening diseases that disproportionately claim children’s lives such as measles, cholera, and polio
Share the word
Our society is stronger when we actively participate in the debate shaping public policy. Act now to help end lockdowns as a policy response and push to pivot to sustainable strategies.
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Disclaimer: This post does not deny the effectiveness of voluntary social distancing or wearing masks; it advocates for it. This post is not saying that COVID19 symptoms are the same as the flu; clearly, they affect individuals in unique ways. Comparisons to historical flu statistics are to establish context relative to the closest comparable infectious respiratory disease that we have data for.
Statistics and sources used for the charts on COVID19 and Flu & Pneumonia: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jE-p0NNjhtb4is16wVZog-DBVyPhfYFe2YcYTv36gJ4/edit?usp=sharing
