Argentina’s food inflation stabilizes following four-month increase, Premise data shows

By Joe Reisinger, CTO and co-founder

As some of you know, I’ve been blogging about the spike in Argentina food inflation we’ve been observing in our data since President Mauricio Macri was elected in November. The President immediately devalued the Peso in December 2015 and eliminated some price controls in January.

Following these policy changes, observers wondered whether this would cause a temporary spike in inflation, or whether this would trigger a longer-term spiral of increasing inflation.

For the time being, inflation appears to have stabilized. Our data shows that Argentina year-over-year food inflation increased from 17% when President Macri was elected, to 33% as of March 3, 2016. In our latest data as of March 31, 2016, inflation remains at 33%.

This stabilization has been observed through nearly all subcomponents of food, including the subcomponents that drove the spike we observed earlier — fish and seafood, meat, and fruit.

Food accounts for around one-fifth of consumption in Argentina, which means food inflation is important for understanding overall price trends.

As of today, official statistics from Argentina’s National Statistics and Censuses Institute (INDEC) are current only through October 2015. INDEC inflation statistics are not being reported as President Macri attempts to reform INDEC’s methods.