Thoughts on Twitter / Elliot / Silverlake announcement
This is a great day for Twitter shareholders and the commonwealth. “Twitter, Inc. Announces Partnership With Silver Lake and Elliott Management.” Ok, let’s break down this announcement from Twitter.
Sycophants and stenographers (CNBC) gathered at 10 Downing to report that Prime Minister Dorsey has secured “Peace in Our Time.” Striking how badly the media (thus far) have misread what has happened here.
This “partnership” means total and near-unconditional surrender by Twitter. I challenge anybody to find an activist campaign levied against a $10B+ company that has resulted in 3 board seats in 5 business days. What does this mean and what happened?
Jack/board cancelling trip to Africa, because of corona and “other stuff.” Heavy lift for “other stuff” (part-time CEO, no self-awareness, negligent board, poor returns, etc.). Part-time CEO in Namibia, half as bad as half-CEO at HQ. You. Can’t. Make. This. Sh*t. Up.
Twitter board called largest shareholders, asked for their support (We’re making progress, Jack is a great guy), and shareholders unequivocally responded, We’re with the guys in the white hats (Elliot/Silverlake).
Elliot’s dialog with shareholders was a series of head nods — violent agreement. Not a dialog but IQ test (see above: part-time CEO, weak returns). By the mid-week, this was no longer a battle (Twitter board/Jack had lost), but an attempt to achieve “Peace with Honor.”
“To continue to ensure strong governance, we are pleased to create a temporary Board committee that will build on our regular evaluation of Twitter’s leadership structure.” Board either convince Elliot/Silverlake that Jack is in fact Jesus Christ (not subject to time/space continuum like every other CEO) or hires a recruiter in next 30 days.
This agreement gives now-neutered Lead Director Patrick Pichette and Chair Omid Kordestani the opportunity to roll off the board in the next 12 months, and have Jack’s resignation be his own idea.
Imagine this board, 3 new directors placed on the board — in record time—whose only argument was the CEO needed to be replaced. #awkward. I trust they’ll have board meetings in the morning, when Jack is at Twitter vs. Square.
Jack given stay of execution, but he is walking The Green Mile as CEO. A brilliant entrepreneur/product guy, maybe Chairman? Pichette and Kordestani should be assigned Trump family status, and not be allowed to serve on boards. See above: negligent.
Remember this letter, sent 12/9? I never heard back—the bad news. The good news: Elliot/Silverlake signed in, 2 weeks ago, with a $3B pen.
Floor has been set on Twitter stock, as Silverlake will make a bid to take firm private if price declines. Silverlake does not buy shares in tech firms, it takes them private. This was first step toward that end.
Corona/oil plunge will be to Twitter what the First Iraq War was to CNN, a game changer. A new chapter for Twitter—on a path to commanding the space it occupies. Any platform with the reach, influence, and addictive attributes of Twitter trades at 10–25x the valuation.
In December I purchased shares at $30, sold 3 weeks ago at $39. When I saw Elliot letter, I bought back in. Can now focus on product innovation and citizenship-verified IDs, consistent/enforced TOS, paid niche product(s).
Predictions: Twitter hits $40+ by EOW (3/13/2020), and all-time high by EOY. 40 stocks on my Stocks app, only one is green today, markets love this. This is a great day for Twitter shareholders and the commonwealth.
