The revelations this weekend that a senior government aide travelled from London to Durham while someone in their household had symptoms of Coronavirus has dominated discussion and media coverage. Some commentators making claims that the next election was being lost in front of our eyes. The next election is, of course, some way off and as is often the case with these events it is entirely possible that this episode of the Westminster drama barely registers with the wider, dare we say ‘ordinary’ public not spending their Bank Holiday weekend on twitter.
It is impossible to say what the impact…
Slides from presentation via Zoom at University of York Politics Seminar.
Draft Working paper available here
A key story for the 2019 election was whether voters who were at odds with the party they voted for in 2017 over Brexit would switch to a party more in-line with their views.
This is a first look at how the EU referendum ‘identities’ voters held related to voting in the election. It considers voters in England only as the picture in Scotland and Wales is very different but the sample sizes in the data make separate analysis more problematic. Scottish and Welsh election studies will be available in the coming months.
To the sound of cheers from election nerds across the country the first academic data on the 2019 election became available today. Although various polling companies have released post-mortems of the election it is only through these surveys that we can begin to see how voters values mattered in 2019.
This is a ‘first look’ at some of that data. Better models, charts and descriptions will follow in the coming weeks.
Values are our deeply held sense of the ‘desirable’, political values are our sense of the outcomes we would want to see from politics. A little looser than ‘ideology’…
To understand voters positions and vote choices we must understand how their economic and social values combine and how they interact with identity.
Since the general election in December 2019 there has been much talk about how Labour should responsd, trying to recapture voters who are more ‘socially Conservative’, more ‘English’, who voted Leave in the referendum now that Brexit is ‘done’; there are no shortage of groups who did not vote Labour in 2019 to aim at.
What is an election winning collation for the Labour party? After a fourth election defeat it is understandable that this should be a question to which the party seeks urgent answers, but the magnitude of the defeat in December not only points to answers being complex but also affords Labour the luxury of time to work out what went wrong. The simple answer is we won’t know what an electoral winning coalition looks like for Labour for some time.
Although it seems clear that voters deserted the party between 2017 and 2019 there isn’t a simple answer as to where…
Initial takes on the 2019 election have focussed on the need for Labour to win back the trust of socially conservative voters, while this is undoubtedly true there is a little more to the story as 2010 Labour voters considering voting for the Conservatives were also more moderate on economics than 2010 Labour voters that were likely to stay with the party.
It will be sometime before we have data for the political values and voting behaviour of indivdual voters on December 12th. But as the Labour leadership campaign is well under way and the earliest accounts of the election…
As the general election campaign begins to gain momentum, new polling appears more and more frequently from an even greater range of sources than ever. How can we use the ever-growing data pile to make any sense at all of what might happen on polling day?
Some tactical voting sites and election ‘predictors’ make ‘nowcasts’; their best guesses of where each constituency is in terms of vote share at the time the data are collected. The difficulty for the engaged reader of polling is that the polls differ (see this on so-called ‘house effects’ between pollsters) are changing, and there…
At the 2010 general election the Liberal Democrats won 23% of the vote and 57 seats, sufficient for them to be kingmakers in the resulting hung parliament and to go into a coalition government, widely believed to have led to their near wipeout at the 2015 general election.
Having failed to make any significant recovery in 2017, and still polling under 10% in vote intention polls for most of 2018 it was a puzzle as to why the party were unable to make greater gains as the electorate struggled to place themselves in a post-referendum political landscape.
The EU parliament…
With talk of an early general election, polling volatile and unstable at the national level and the first past the post electoral system under increasing strain it is not a simple task to say with any confidence what the outcome of an election might be.
There are numerous tools around the internet which allow you to predict an outcome based on a national opinion poll but these are of limited use when tactical voting is likely and new divides are emerging.
Researching values, identity and social class and their impact on political behaviour.