Profile of the ‘Modern Working Life’ values clan
(with Michael Turner and BMG Research)
New research by Michael Turner and his team at BMG research has revealed 10 ‘clans’ based on the value positions of the electorate. Value positions are more enduring than policy preferences or evaluations, are often deeply held and are our conceptions of the kind of society we would like to live in. Value positions are expressions of the desirable and not reflections on precise policy formulations.
Of these 10 clans some are clearly pro-Labour and others pro-Conservative but there are also important ‘swing clans’ who are groups where voters may be more ‘persuadable’ by the parties. This piece looks at one of the most interesting of these clans. Labelled the ‘Modern Working Life’ clan this is a relatively small group in the electorate representing less than 1 in 10 voters (7%). Nonetheless, when polling continues to show the parties close together in levels of support these ‘swing’ clans could be critical to opening a gap between the parties, especially in the context of an election campaign.
Clans are defined by clusters of political, economic and social values (derived from a Latent Class Analysis of 27 values measures). The Modern Working Life clan are strong believers in the value of hard work and social mobility, they are more likely to believe in individual responsibility for financial well-being but are liberal on gender equality, LGBT rights and the environment. It is easy to see then, why this clan was one of the most supportive of Cameron’s modernising Conservative party in 2015. Almost half of the clan voted Conservative at this election.
However, in 2017 they were marginally more likely to have voted for Corbyn’s Labour party than for the Conservatives under May. Though overall the clan remained split between the two parties. The Labour share of the vote in this clan increased from 27% in 2015 to a (small) majority of 45% in 2017 (the Conservative share fell from 48% to 44% among this group).
As the chart below indicates, in an election where both parties increased their vote share at the expense of the smaller parties, this clan saw the highest increase in the vote for Labour and small swing away from the Conservatives. It is especially noteworthy that 17% of those who had voted Conservative in 2015 among this group moved to the Labour party in 2017.
Who are ‘Modern Working Life’?
As shown in the chart below; the members of this clan are on average younger than the other clans identified in the research; they are the group most likely to have members from the under 45 age groups but especially the 25–44 group. More than 1 in 4 of this group are aged 25–34. They are also more likely to be female. Over 60% of this group are female, the most gender imbalanced of all the clans. In keeping with their label, this group are less likely to be on the lowest household income levels, with just 13% with household incomes below £15,000 and almost 1 in 3 of these households with incomes of over £50,000. Whilst in terms of social grade, this clan highlight the problematic nature of the dividing lines as they are more likely to be in C1 and C2 (traditionally opposite sides of the ‘middle/working class’ aggregation of social grade).
While sharing some similarities with the other pro-Labour groups in 2017 (such as the ‘Global Green Community’), this clan are distinctive in being much less interested in politics. Just over 1 in 10 of this group say they are ‘very interested’ in politics, similar to the level of the clan identified as ‘Apathy’; and compared with over two fifths of the ‘Global Green Community’ group — the group which saw the second highest swing to Labour in 2017. They are also more likely than other clans to say that the cost of living is the most important issue facing the country.
What might this mean for a future general election?
Current polling has shown high levels of ‘don’t knows’ particularly among female voters. This is likely to be true of this group of voters too. They are a group who have ‘mixed’ values (being quite ‘centrist’ in terms of their economic values but combining liberal and conservative elements in social values, being relatively liberal in their attitudes to gender equality and identity but more conservative in areas such as criminal justice and civil liberties.
This clan is not unique in being uneasily satisfied by the positions of any single party. It is also one whose future behaviour could prove critical in elections. Whether or not its members can be further persuaded that Corbyn’s Labour best fits their values could be critical to Labour’s chances in the next general election.
Further information on the research
The full report is available to be downloaded here
Take the test and find your value clan here