In this piece, I’m going to summarize some of the more recent work by scientists and statisticians on climate. It’s important to understand that …
- The alarm increased dramatically in 2013, with the UN’s decision to promote the most extreme warming scenarios (highly recommended).
- The policy cart is way out in front of the scientific horse.
- As time goes on, the less sensitivity to CO2 the models are showing. It is harder and harder to scientifically justify the claims made by the UN in 2013.
- There is no calculation based on first principles that leads to a large warming driven by CO2, none.
- The major publications have declared their bias toward catastrophic warming from CO2. Nature Climate Science says anything they publish must be “grounded in the current literature.” That’s their way of saying “The debate is over, we don’t want anyone presenting evidence to the contrary, now we’re just promoting the long-term projections that haven’t come true yet.” This makes it difficult for scientists to exchange knowledge.
- Publications are now releasing two peer-reviewed papers per day confirming exactly what the UN predicts and zero papers questioning the assumptions. Many scientists complain that their papers are not accepted because they don’t have the right keywords.
- The US government alone gives out more than $12 billion in research grants each year to unequivocally show global warming is happening. Total yearly spend worldwide in 2018 was more than half a trillion dollars.
- The UN says we need to spend $2.4 trillion per year to prevent catastrophe. No one dies from global warming today, yet 1.6 million people die each year from indoor smoke. That’s a lot of money to spend on a future projection.
- Claims of a great “consensus” of experts agreeing are a) inaccurate and b) meaningless. Science is not a personality contest. For a breakdown of the claims, see “Why Scientists Disagree about Global Warming.”
- There is a tremendous amount of distortion of the science, the “consensus,” and the political agenda behind the global climate-change movement.
If you’re interested in the science, here are a handful of good starting points listed by author.
- Examination of space-based bulk atmospheric temperatures used in climate research
- Global Warming Theory in a Nutshell
- The Tropical Skies — Falsifying Climate Alarm
- Bjorn Lomborg and John Christy Shred Climate Alarmism
- Putting Climate Change Claims to the Test
Kevin Dick, a statistician with training in econometrics:
- Climate models as prediction algorithms
- Evidence against climate model accuracy
- Optimal climate change policy
- Calculating tail risk
Connolly and Connolly
- Evaluating the human-caused and natural contributions to recent global warming
- Estimating Arctic sea ice trends before the satellite era
- Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century
- Urbanization bias I. Is it a negligible problem for global temperature estimates?
- Urbanization bias II. An assessment of the NASA GISS urbanization adjustment method
- The physics of the Earth’s atmosphere I: Phase change associated with Tropopause
- Fake Data — the Basis of Climate Science
- Accelerating Sea Level Fraud
- Arctic Sea Ice Unchanged From 60 Years Ago
- Climate Models vs Observations: 2019 Update
- ClimateGate — Untangling Myth and Reality Ten Years Later
Causes and Consequences of the Climate Science Boom, a good follow-the-money-trail paper by Butos and McQuade.
Sea Level and Climate Change, by Judith Curry
CO2 Emissions by volcanoes and sea vents vastly higher than previously estimated — a calculation that inactive thermal vents and volcanoes could be emitting much more CO2 than previously thought. This would not impact the environment but could impact the anthropogenic calculus.
170 Years of Earth Surface Temperature Data Show No Evidence of Significant Warming, by Thomas Bjorklund
Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale — published in Nature, confirms beliefs about solar fluctuations that have a strong influence on earth temperatures.
Marohasey and Abott on confirmation of the worldwide Medieval Warm Period using neural networks to analyze the text of six data sets.
Is the US Surface Temperature Record Unreliable?, by Anthony Watts
The Polar Bear Catastrophe that Never Happened, by Susan Crockford
If you know of other scientific studies and articles, please add them in the comments! If you want to learn more about climate and business, please connect.
If you are interested in all this, you may be interested to learn about the Giordano Bruno Institute.
David Siegel is a serial entrepreneur in Washington, DC. He is the founder of the Pillar Project and 2030. He is the author of The Token Handbook, Open Stanford, The Culture Deck, Global Warming for Dummies, Climate Curious, and The Nine Act Structure. He gives speeches to audiences around the world — see his speaker page if you would like him to speak at your next event. His full body of work is at dsiegel.com.