The Karnataka spillover that BRS, BJP and Congress can’t ignore in Telangana
As the dust settles around the Karnataka verdict, there is a buzz about how — or if — its outcome could affect the upcoming elections in various states, especially in neighbouring Telangana (for me, as I come from Hyderabad).
Politics changes with geography and no two states are similar. I would go as far as to say that politics differs in each constituency. However, while the overall politics in the K. Chandrashekar Rao-led state may not change because of the Karnataka results, the journey that parties take to the election definitely will.
Telangana is similar to Karnataka — and different from it — in many ways.
Like Karnataka, elections in Telangana are likely to be a triangular fight, with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi), Congress and the BJP fighting for honours. The Congress, which is a formidable force in Karnataka, was the go-to party in united Andhra Pradesh, from which Telangana was carved out of in 2014.
In terms of differences, unlike Karnataka, Telangana has had stable governments since its formation, with the TRS sweeping the polls in 2014 and 2018 (KCR had advanced elections).
Karnataka is the only state in south India where the BJP has led governments, while the party is still trying to find a footing in Telangana.
The starkest similarity that the Congress units in Telangana and Karnataka have is the ‘outsider effect’. In Karnataka, Siddaramaiah is considered an outsider (he was earlier with the Janata Dal (Secular)), while in Telangana, TPCC chief Revanth Reddy, who was once a staunch critic of the Congress, is an import from the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).
To understand how the Karnataka results will affect the Telangana polls, a brief look at the history and current scenario of the latter’s political landscape is necessary.
The state has been firmly in the BRS’ hold since its inception. The Congress, which has been losing ground in the state since bifurcation, and the BJP, which was a non-entity, suddenly rose to prominence through wins in bypolls (Huzurabad in 2021 and Dubbak in 2020) and a strong performance in the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections.
TRS/BRS
On the face of it, the TRS seems to be strongly placed in the state. However, the ruling party has undergone a major change in the recent past — its name. Removing the word “Telangana” — a sentiment on which it rose to and has stayed in power — has been replaced by “Bharat”, signalling KCR’s national ambitions ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
This, however, has not gone down well with a section of voters and even party leaders, who feel a sense of abandonment to the Telangana cause. This apart, a section of voters feels that KCR, who is seen as a champion of the Telangana cause, wants to occupy the power corridors of New Delhi at the cost of his commitment to the state.
Since the BRS came into being, the Telangana CM has toured neighbouring Maharashtra and promised to campaign for the JD(S) in Telugu-majority areas (Kalyan Karnataka) during the assembly polls. However, for a plethora of reasons — including the JD(S)’ past bonhomie with the BJP, and the possibility of a post/pre-poll alliance with the Congress in Telangana — he stayed away from the campaign despite Kumaraswamy being one of the first leaders to embrace the new party name.
By campaigning for the JD(S) in the Karnataka polls, KCR had hoped that Kumaraswamy would return the favour by campaigning in areas of Telangana that border Karnataka.
However, the JD(S)’ poor show, especially in Kalyan Karnataka (not its stronghold) may have affected KCR’s “friendship”. In a statement that shows the KCR-led party is jittery of the BJP’s foray into the state, spokesperson Karne Prabhakar said the Congress may have won elsewhere in Karnataka, but in border areas like Bidar, where there is a significant Telugu-speaking population, the BJP did well.
The self-admitted ‘BJP surge’ knocking on Telangana’s doors may force KCR to shift focus to the state and derail his national ambitions.
As the Karnataka verdict emphasised the importance of balancing caste equations, BRS (known to be a Velama party, as KCR belongs to the caste) may now have to relook this aspect.
While the state government has initiated many caste-based schemes, wooing the numerically and politically dominant castes may well be the focus of the party now. Munnurkapus, among other OBCs (52%), are numerically dominant in Telangana, while, politically, the Reddys are considered to be influential. There have been accusations in the past of the party ignoring Munnurkapus and Mudirajs (another OBC community) while giving preference to the Velamas (who barely make up 2% of the state’s population). However, the party has been trying to shed the image by giving the Munnurkapus representation — GHMC mayor Gadwal Vijayalakshmi, daughter of senior party leader K. Keshava Rao.
The Karnataka result also brought the AHINDA (Kannada abbreviation for Dalits-Muslims-Backward Classes) importance to the fore. With the Asaduddin Owaisi-led MIM in the fray, a seemingly resurgent Congress, and the Hindutva-advocating BJP on the rise, preventing the split of these — especially minority — votes may prove to be a headache for KCR, and thus the BRS may have to focus on these social classes with a renewed vigour.
The party also faces a problem of plenty in the state. After the 2018 election, a hoard of leaders had joined the party, leading to rumblings in the ‘real’ BRS cadre and leadership. With the assembly election approaching, the party now faces the prospect of a large-scale exodus due to denial of tickets. There is bickering in most of the constituencies, which are out in the public.
The biggest casualties of the infighting are Ponguleti Srinivasa Reddy and Jupally Krishna Rao, who were recently suspended for anti-party activities. While Ponguleti is seen to be a strongman in Khammam (region where the BRS is weak and managed to win only a couple of seats, and subsequently poached MLAs), Jupally is the strongman of Kollapur in south Telangana. The party can ill-afford this and will need to put in more effort to keep its flock together.
Congress
The Grand Old Party may be riding on a Karnataka-induced high but the road to the power corridors of Telangana is filled with hurdles. As in the case of Karnataka, the party needs to get its caste equation to the T in Telangana.
However, two main issues hamper this. First, the Congress in Telangana is labelled as a Reddy party and, second, as admitted by one of its own leaders, is difference in demographics.
While most constituencies in Karnataka are demographically dominated by one caste, the same is not the case with Telangana, which has a mixture of castes in constituencies.
The party enjoyed the fruits (absolute majority) of putting up a united face in Karnataka, but in Telangana, there is hardly any semblance of unity. Revanth Reddy’s elevation to the top post in the state has not gone down well with party old-timers like Komatireddy Venkat Reddy (Nalgonda MP) and Uttam Kumar Reddy (former TPCC chief).
In fact, Revanth’s elevation led Venkat Reddy’s brother and former Munugode MLA, Rajagopal Reddy, out of the party and into the BJP’s fold.
Evidence of the ‘cold-war’ was Venkat Reddy, at a public event, endorsing a Dalit CM for the state in the presence of Bhatti Vikramarka (he belongs to the Dalit community), clearly trying to take Revanth out of the race, if the party were to come to power after the December 2023 elections.
As in Karnataka, the Congress will face an uphill task in deciding the chief minister, should it emerge on top in the elections.
The Grand Old Party is looking to announce welfare measures in Telangana, on the lines of Karnataka (which reaped rich dividends electorally for them). However, the party is likely to face a major hurdle — the lack of a credible, proven administrator like Siddaramaiah — in its bid to do so.
Even so, the cadre and leadership in the state would be riding on the high of Karnataka, and will look to replicate the party’s performance in Telangana. The enthusiasm is evident, at least in the leadership, with TPCC chief Revanth Reddy urging former Congressmen to return to the party fold.
BJP
Of all the parties, the BJP is likely to change its strategy in Telangana the most and it has a task at hand. While there was talk about the Karnataka results making or breaking the BJP’s south India plans, the cadre’s (most important for a party like BJP) morale would have taken a beating. First and foremost, the party needs to revive the enthusiasm among the cadre to ensure that their plans for Telangana are not derailed by the Karnataka loss.
After the Karnataka drubbing, some feathers have been ruffled in the Telangana unit of the saffron fold. A section of the leaders who had joined the party after the 2018 elections has asked the high command to replace state BJP chief Bandi Sanjay, a firebrand Hindutva leader, with Eatala Rajender, a TRS turncoat.
The BJP is caught in a Catch-22 situation in Telangana in this regard, given the drubbing in Karnataka as a consequence of Lingayat exodus. While Sanjay belongs to the Munnurkapu community, Rajender hails from the Mudiraj community (both OBC communities with significant numerical importance). By replacing Sanjay, the party will likely alienate the Munnurkapus while also having to divert from its original ‘Telangana breach plan’ of targeting OBCs, a section allegedly ignored by the BRS. Also, by replacing Sanjay, it would come across as a party that is going soft on its Hindutva agenda. The way this situation is handled by the BJP will most likely dictate its trajectory and final tally in the assembly elections.
Another ripple-effect of the Karnataka polls that the party is staring at is the newly acquired unwillingness of fence-sitters to join the party, fearing a Karnataka repeat. The same was conveyed to Amit Shah by Rajender, who is the chairman of the party’s joining committee (Yes! A joining committee) in a meeting in the national capital. Evidence of this is the unfruitful meeting between the BJP state brass with Ponguleti and Jupally, both of whom were waiting for the Karnataka results before taking a decision on their next course of action.
While Telangana has pockets of Muslim-dominated areas (in Hyderabad, Karimnagar, Kamareddy, Mahbubnagar, Nizamabad, etc), it is clear from the Karnataka loss that the Hindutva card does not work in the south as much as it does in the north of the country. However, the BJP does not seem to have learnt its lesson. Two days after the Karnataka poll results, the party went ahead with its Hindu Ekta Yatra in Karimnagar, with Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in attendance. Apart from the Hindutva plank, which it has been pushing with vigour, the party needs to also harp on ‘development issues’ to make itself a formidable force.
Another aspect that haunted the party in Karnataka, and is likely to haunt it in Telangana, is the dearth of local leadership and the over-reliance on the Modi-Shah combination. Like Bommai in Karnataka lacked acceptance across sections of the electorate, in Telangana, Sanjay and Rajender have limited acceptance outside their areas of influence with none of them capable of being projected as the CM face of the party. This is not to say that either of them may not be the CM if the party wins Telangana but I reckon the BJP would not go into the election projecting either of them (also for the fear of angering one of them) as its face. The BJP would want to groom (however possible) a local leader to ensure they have a convincing local face to campaign with.
This raises a question of whether the likes of Union minister G. Kishan Reddy would be given a bigger role in the state. Reddy is a son of the soil, who has risen up the ranks of the BJP. The party, if it decides for a bigger role for him, will want Kishan Reddy to deliver for them what AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge did for the Congress in Karnataka.
While keeping these tweaks in strategy in mind, the BJP can — at its own peril — forget that it has to tackle two tough opponents (BRS and Congress) at the same time. To achieve this, the party may seek out an alliance with the TDP in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. It would be a win-win for both TDP and BJP in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, if the alliance does materialise. Firstly, the BJP, which has no footing in Andhra Pradesh, could see an opening in the door there while also tapping into the core TDP vote base (almost around 3–4% on an average in all assembly constituencies) in Telangana.
For the TDP, which was wiped out in Telangana post-bifurcation of the state, the BJP’s cadre base in many constituencies of Telangana could be a blessing. In Andhra Pradesh, it could find an ease of making more assurances with the Centre on its side (though AP votes simultaneously for Lok Sabha and assembly).
The AIMIM effect
Any analysis of Telangana politics is not complete without speaking of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi. The party has been on the right side of power, almost always, and is known to shake hands with the victor — be it the Congress (in united AP) or BRS (since 2014).
Though the BRS and the AIMIM are not officially allies, they are known to be friends. While this may help the BRS breathe easy in constituencies dominated by Muslims and in the Hyderabad region and a few other places (from where the AIMIM draws most of its seats), it also paints a target on the BRS’ back. There have been allegations, on numerous occasions, from the Congress and the BJP, that the BRS has a tacit understanding with the AIMIM. This allows the BJP brand the BRS a Muslim party while it gives the Congress ammo to train guns at it and woo back one of its core voter bases — the Muslims.
Voter lookout
Apart from causing tremors among political parties in Telangana, the results of Karnataka have reasserted the fact that the voter does not like to waste his/her vote.
Parties must be aware to plan, design and execute their campaign keeping an intelligent voter in mind. Though this is not really a tweak, it is a factor that has come to the fore in Karnataka and could very well make all the contesting parties and contenders bend the rules of the game.
It will be interesting to see which party learns from Karnataka the most. Whether the BRS would be able to keep Telangana or will a renewed Congress take another state in the south, or would the BJP learn from the Karnataka debacle and make significant inroads in a new southern state, is something only time will tell.
For now, the race for supremacy in the newest state of India is on, and how!