Internet Bubbles

Valuation bubbles in the technology sector are nothing new. But how can we limit the impact they have on us?


In case you haven’t heard, there’s talk of an “Internet bubble 2.0″.

I’ve consciously avoided discussing this topic because I have no interest in analyzing other people’s predictions or coming up with any of my own. I’m not psychic. And neither are the people who claim to know when the NASDAQ will crash again.

But I do want to mention one thing: In the long run, bubbles don’t matter if you know how to appreciate the fundamentals of a sound business. Regardless of the industry (whether it be technology or financial services), if a business has strong sales, healthy cash flows, patentable differentiators, and meaningful brand equity, then in principle it should stand the test of time.

These days, it seems like too many B2C technology entrepreneurs are chasing vanity metrics like user growth with VC money. If they collectively fail to generate meaningful margins in a timely fashion, then yes we’re in for trouble. It’s never a good idea to get distracted by the glamour of having a gazillion users, and totally forgetting about what really matters: cash.

Businesses need to make money. End of story. As entrepreneurs, figuring out a way to get out of the red should always be priority number one. After all, what’s the point of users if they’re not worth anything? And it’s not enough to be just profitable. Entrepreneurs need to determine how value is being created for users over the long-haul, and how that value proposition will evolve to accommodate changing consumer preferences and economic landscapes.

Investors can do their part by being conservative about estimates around growth, and thinking twice before dumping money into businesses that aren’t clear on how to sustainably monetize their gazillion users (or products and services for that matter). Sure, sometimes a startup’s path towards profitability isn’t clear. And that shouldn’t be a reason to ignore a rapidly growing venture. But it’s really easy to get carried away and make irrational investment decisions when the possibilities are ostensibly endless.

If there is a bubble and it bursts, it will only do so in the hands of people touching it. For those of you who are losing sleep over the possibility, don’t. Just stay away from companies that spend crazy money scaling without a plan to generate real money.

- Qasim

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