The age of the Prince
A lot has been said already regarding the sudden yet expected dynasty turnover in Saudi Arabia, with the nomination of King Salman’s son as the new Crown Prince in place of his nephew Mohammad bin Nayef (MbN). But is his age a disadvantage?
The changes enacted by the Royal Decree of the 21st of June 2017 are not limited to the sole rise of Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) among the Saudi Royal upper layers, but also confirm the generational shift that is being operated. As many observers of the Saudi internal policy already exposed for the longest time, the monarchs’ succession is the Kingdom’s weak spot and also the one of the Royal Family itself for that matter.
Since the founding father, Ibn Saoud, who unified the country in 1932, the six following kings have all been and are his sons. Mechanically delaying the age of taking office and together with it, taking the risk of appointing an already sick monarch to the throne, as rumors surrounding the health of current king Salman portray.
Often pictured as a gerontocracy, the first four rules following Ibn Saoud’s are however far from being one. Saud was crowned at 51, Faysal at 58, Khaled at 62 and Fahd at 61. Following Fahd’s reign came two kings who made the coronation age skyrocketed with Abdullah at 81 and Salman at 80. This could be explained by the longevity of Fahd’s 23-years reign which is the longest in Saudi history until now. Together with a King, comes a Crown Prince who is supposed to be the next line. But out of the twelve Crown Princes since 1932 — which gives an average of 2 Crown Princes per King (even though the nominations hastened since 2011) — only half later became Kings so far.
Which could be summed up as follow:
in Saudi, in order to become king one must first be a Crown Prince, yet a Crown Prince doesn’t necessarily become a king.
MbN’s current situation illustrates it if needed.
Furthermore, out of the twelve Crown Princes since 1932, only the last two — MbN and MbS respectively — are not Ibn Saud’s sons but his grandsons and one is already out of the game. Last but not least the average age for taking office as a Crown Prince is 71 years old while it is 65,5 for a king. Thus demonstrating that if gerontocracy there is in Saudi, it is more embodied by the Crown Princes rather than by the Kings.
If age is not a determining factor the fact that for the past two decades Saudis have been ruled by old men is not to be discarded. Every culture usually reveres and respects the elders as they personify wisdom, knowledge and experience. It is particularly true within a tribal community in which family is the core center of any evolution. The emergence of a young leader in Saudi therefore created a shock wave that resulted in many media coverage questioning MbS on his abilities to hold such powers (Ministry of Defence, Economic and Development Affairs Council, Head of Aramco, etc.) when his father became king. Not only was the international coverage severe toward the young prince, but it even resulted in a breach within the so-called unity of the Saudi royal family with a letter challenging the new rising family branch, supposedly written by a member of the royal family and leaked in the press as soon as September 2015 — height months after Salman’s access to the throne.
It was a first, as usually the royal family business is handled by few players in the shadow in order to prevent tarnishing the semblance of unity.
MbS’s young age is since the very beginning of his ascension at the center of the debate surrounding the future of the kingdom. First introduced as a “spoiled kid” with far too many powers in his hands, conducting an Economic reform already doomed together with a catastrophic military engagement in neighboring Yemen, the media lobbying in order to improve his image in the West however managed to soften this terrible reputation and even grew his credibility.
Though, McKinsey, the advisor agency seen as the architect of Vision 2030, denied having been involved in its shaping because of the highly unpopular removal of financial allowances for members of the civil service and military (re-established in April 2017). The catastrophic handling of the Yemen war that after being meticulously ignored by medias finally ended up being significantly covered and with it promoted a terrible image of the kingdom worldwide. And finally the fact that in the midst of funds cuts the Royal family and among it MbS, are credited to widely spend huge amount of the oil money for their own leisure, all contributed to circulate a mitigated fame for MbS.
However, many are the analysts who understood how pragmatic the new leading team was. Conservative but realistic. And thus many details regarding MbS’s past are jealously kept away from the people. His biography is short and until recently even his real date of birth was a secret. During the last couple of years, the medias credited him to be sometimes 30, 31, 32 up to 35. Rumors even claimed he was barely 27 in 2015. His official biography as a member of the Saudi Council of Ministers didn’t even have a birth date. It since changed, and he is now said to be born on the 31st of August 1985, therefore being 31 today.
Which makes him — with no contestant whatsoever — the youngest Crown Prince in modern times Saudi. Probably that the crown is now confident his rising star cannot be contested anymore. And with some reasons. With the foolproof regional support, guidance even as many experts put it, of the United Arab Emirates de facto ruler Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) and the complete recent reshuffle of the Saudi command and power structure, MbS is indeed unreachable. A young generation of royal princes is indeed appearing in every strata of the Saudi power as Carnegie researcher Joseph Bahout explained already in May 2017. The Royal Decree of the 21st of June comes in full confirmation of this trend.
Saudi is slowly moving from an old tribal order into a young nation-state ruled by a still very conservative and absolute monarchy. Yet the main concern remains — apart from being mediatically appealing — : the emergence of this young and supposedly dynamic generation does not prove by itself that the kingdom is evolving toward modernity. On the contrary, it could also very well drive the country into deeper instability.
If old age is not a proof of wisdom, young age neither is a proof of open mindedness.
