The O’Hare Express Train Files, Part Two: Autonomous…Electric Skates?
Can the so-called “Chicago Express Loop” be the underground silver bullet for Chicago?
This is the second of a multi-part series on the myriad of proposals to connect Downtown Chicago and O’Hare International Airport via express train, and it covers the prospects of Elon Musk’s unique proposal. The first part covered the CTA’s Block 37 superstation plan.
Earlier this year, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel made a startling announcement. Well, two of them.
The first, which was probably a little more stunning to those on the urban planning side of things, was giving a green light to The Boring Company, entrepreneur Elon Musk’s experimental tunneling venture, to design and build a completely new iteration of the O’Hare express train. In doing so this June, Emanuel placed a bet on wholly unproven technology, physically and fiscally.
Emanuel’s real stunner in 2018 was a Labor Day weekend announcement that he wouldn’t pursue a third term as Chicago’s mayor. He expressed strong belief that the Musk project would push forward in his absence, but many are more skeptical. “The project that’s most likely at risk is the downtown-to-O’Hare express train,” wrote John Pletz of Crain’s Chicago Business. Is that good or bad news for Chicagoans? Let’s dig deeper.
Musk is best known as a founder of PayPal, electric car manufacturer Tesla, and aerospace manufacturer SpaceX, and is currently CEO of the latter two. Frustrated with Los Angeles traffic, he founded The Boring Company in 2016 with a proposal to tunnel between LAX and Santa Monica. His O’Hare proposal involves autonomous vehicles hurtling thru smaller-than-subway tunnels at up to 150 mph. It proposes to build the tunnels 14x faster than current industry standard methods, for less than $1 billion total, within three years.
Even if you draw a straight line from the Loop to O’Hare, the distance is at least 15 miles. Current US subway projects typically range between $250 million and $1 billion per mile, depending on many factors geological and political. New York City’s new Second Avenue Subway has the dubious title of the most expensive subway line in the history of the world, at $2.6 billion per mile.
To be fair, US infrastructure costs have spiraled through the roof compared to our international counterparts. There are certainly preventable cost overruns on many of those public sector projects, and Boring would be supposedly be privately funding the entire project.
Still, however, it’s hard to fathom Musk’s tunnels costing anywhere near the promised total of under $1 billion, which breaks down to $58 million per mile on the proposed 17-mile route. Proponents are giddy at the prospect of full private funding, while skeptics worry taxpayers would be forced to foot an endless bill for inevitable cost overruns, on something that we’re not even sure is the most effective public solution.
Also confusing are the vehicles themselves, which are described as 16 passenger “electric skates”. The vehicles’ ability to fit into significantly smaller tunnels is cited as part of how the tunneling is so much cheaper. The Chicago Magazine article linked below debunks that.
Building tunnels for what is essentially one lane of autonomous cars raises questions about capacity. The project’s stated capacity of 2,000 passengers per hour, per direction, compares horribly with virtually any other mode of rail transit — heavy rail systems, like Chicago’s ‘L’, are typically between 25,000–50,000 passengers per hour. Meanwhile, Musk isn’t exactly a fan of mass transit as a concept, which makes you wonder if the “electric skate” concept is more of an elitist swipe at mass transit than an actually logical design choice. Perhaps the thought is that it’d be such an “elite” service that only the truly “elite” would be able to afford it, capping ridership and nullifying the capacity concerns?
Lastly, there’s not much mention of the projected cost of the stations. The rendering at the top of this article shows the underground airport terminal as a large, airy expanse. The CTA’s Block 37 superstation was to cost at least $350 million, and this terminal is significantly larger. Perhaps an expansion of the existing large Blue Line station could cost costs, but still, it would require significant capital expense.
Overall skepticism on this plan has run even higher than on the CTA’s own mid-2000s Block 37 plan, which, while fatally flawed for other reasons, used fully proven technology and leveraged existing infrastructure. Chicago Business Journal rounded up reactions:
Chicago Magazine: “If Chicago wishes to build an O’Hare express, it should use proven approaches and proven contractors.”
CityLab: “The $1 billion cost projection is probably wildly inaccurate.”
Chicago Sun-Times: “Among all our pressing problems, from schools to cops to pensions to crime to infrastructure, ‘You just can’t get to O’Hare fast enough” qualifies for the list only if followed by ‘said no one ever.’”
Chicago Reader: “Nobody really wants a bullet train to O’Hare — not when we already have taxis and ride shares and the Blue Line.”
Chicago Tribune: “Emanuel’s departure next year calls into question the future of the more controversial rail project proposed by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk.”
Last month, the Better Government Association said it was suing the city of Chicago over “unanswered questions” and “unresolved issues” over the project.
Meanwhile, Musk’s polarizing public image hasn’t done his plan any favors. In July, Musk harassed a diver involved in the Thailand cave rescue. In September, a sarcastic tweet about taking Tesla private cost him $20 million and chairmanship of its board.
Soon after, Musk smoked marijuana while on the live-streamed podcast The Joe Rogan Experience. This led NASA, with whom Musk’s SpaceX company is developing spaceships, to launch a workplace review of SpaceX. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine told The Atlantic that this is a “necessary and appropriate step when you’re launching humans on rockets,” and after numerous discussions with Musk about the ‘pot-cast’, if you will, “you won’t be seeing that again.” That’s not even mentioning a number of other debacles involving Musk and Tesla mismanagement.
All of this is what led Pletz, the Crain’s Chicago Business writer, to cast doubt over the current prospects of Musk’s O’Hare express plan. In its path is a double whammy of adversity: the significant scrutiny it has drawn, and its lack of powerful local allies besides the outgoing Emanuel. “Musk has plenty of bigger issues in front of him at Tesla these days,” writes Pletz. “Emanuel was the O’Hare project’s main patron here in Chicago.”
In a September Chicago Tribune survey of mayoral candidates for the February election, only one expressed support for it, under the suspicious pretense that there would be zero cost to taxpayers. For the other candidates, doubt over that claim was a leading cause for skepticism.
At the unveiling press conference, Musk was notably blunt on the two true outcomes this has. “I’d hope that you’d cheer us on for this because, if we succeed, it’s gonna be a great thing for the city,” Musk said. “And if we fail, I guess me and others will lose a bunch of money.”
That quote, along with many other insightful nuggets from Musk himself, can be found in this Chicago Sun-Times article. In answering his doubters, Musk pointed to the achievements of SpaceX, which he claims saw similar skepticism.
As for the “why Chicago” question, Musk lauded the city’s ability to take decisive action without having to go through “12 or 15 different, separate authorities to do things. In Chicago, that number is far smaller.”
Perhaps Musk will prove us all wrong and pull off a successful project. If that happens, cities across the country will be lining up for an “express loop” of their own.
At the same time, there are far too many red flags in evaluating this rationally to not be highly skeptical. In this case, it would join a legendary legacy of infamous moments in Chicago politics.
To Musk’s point about Chicago’s soft regulations: in this specific instance, perhaps some classic bureaucratic red tape wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
Airport express trains are an extreme rarity in North America. But there’s one example in particular Chicago ought to learn a thing or two from. Stay tuned for more.
