Still mostly bad news, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

By any measure, the United States is on track to experience more infections and deaths from coronavirus than any other developed country on the planet. Using the latest data from John Hopkins, we see that the number of people dying in the US is growing at an unprecedented rate. As of April 9th, 2020, the mortality curve in the United States is both steeper and earlier than anywhere else from the 100th confirmed death.

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This is likely driven by the sheer scale of infections in the United States. …


Update 4/10/2020: Recent data indicates that the US is on a tragic path toward experiencing more infections and mortalities from coronavirus than any other developed country on the planet.

According to the COVID-19 data aggregated by John Hopkins, there are now over 200 thousand cases of coronavirus globally. Unfortunately, the most recent data suggests that things are going to get much worse before they get any better.

In this article, we describe an approach to estimate the number of future coronavirus cases after 1000 confirmed infections using simple statistical distributions. We can do this by assessing how quickly the disease has spread in other countries that have already passed the 1000 case threshold. As specified in the title, the model(s) outlined below may work for most countries. I also provide updated estimates specific to the United States from an autoregressive exogenous AR-X(1) statistical model. …


Update 3/14/2020: The model predictions at the bottom of this article have a mean absolute error (MAE) of 86 between 3/11 and 3/14. That implies that the AR-X(1) model outlined in this paper has been accurate to within an average of 86 coronavirus confirmations thus far.
Update 3/18/2020: Updated statistics are available in a follow-up article.
Update 4/10/2020: Recent data indicates that the US is on a tragic path toward experiencing more infections and mortalities from coronavirus than any other developed country on the planet.

With the CDC and US authorities scrambling to get enough coronavirus tests ready for the public, it would be helpful if we could estimate the number of future COVID-19 cases in the United States on a daily cadence. We can do this by assessing how quickly the disease has spread in other countries. And while the title of this article specifies the United States as the target audience, the models outlined below may work for most countries with more than 500 confirmed coronavirus infections. …

About

Sebastian Quintero

Founder, CEO and Chief Scientist @ Invariant Studios

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