Boris In A Brexit Bind
Boris Johnson, the new United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM), is in a Brexit bind. Johnson, who came to power as the Conservative leader and PM on July 24, just saw his majority coalition government cut to one vote due to a by-election and that could deteriorate further if any members of parliament defect to another party or sit as independents.
Johnson has indicated in his bid for leadership of the Tories that, come hell or high water (terminology that someone like Johnson actually uses), the UK will be out of the European Union (EU) come October 31, 2019. He has a dream of negotiating a better deal than his predecessor, Theresa May, but the EU has pretty emphatically said no. Leaving with no deal in place is known as a hard Brexit. May’s deal was not terribly much better but did provide some stability in terms of ensuring a transition period and time to mull over the future relationship with the EU. It also provides for a controversial backstop on trade between the Republic of Ireland and the UK’s Northern Ireland to avoid a hard border coming up again on the Irish Isle. Brexiters view this as a trap to keep the UK in the EU permanently.
The Brexit debate appears to be headed for an explosion over the next 90 days. It could mean the following:
— The end of the Conservatives’ reign. David Cameron resigned after the June 2016 referendum in favor of Brexit. Theresa May resigned after she failed to get her negotiated deal through parliament. Odds are that Johnson’s government falls over the issue as well. The Labour party, headed by Socialist Jeremy Corbin, has done little to lend support, preferring to see an election called when the conservatives fall. He, too, is no fan of staying in the EU as it poisons some of his plans to nationalize certain businesses.
— It could also divide the UK up. In 2016, Northern Ireland and Scotland voted pretty comfortably in favor of staying in the EU, while England and Wales wanted out in much closer votes. Scotland already held a close independence vote in 2014. A Brexit would likely lead to calls for another ballot, propelled by the argument that Scotland should be independent now and in the EU. What happens in Northern Ireland is less clear. A hard border would devastate the north as well as the republic. Religious tensions remain. The Good Friday Accord is already on life support. Brexit could lead to imposition of direct control of Northern Ireland from London.
— Economically, the UK would face an uncertain future with a hard Brexit and even with May’s plan. Except for the politically biased Brexit economists, most experts see mild to significant negative impact in the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP), ranging from a reduction of 5% to nearly 20% if simply a member of the World Trade Organization. The impacts are smaller if the UK negotiates trade agreements with the EU and others or enters the European Economic Area (an extension of the EU to non-members at some heavy costs). But this would take time.
We have already seen major industries, especially banking, move jobs and headquarters from London to EU states. So there is no doubt there will be a tough economic road ahead for the UK if a hard Brexit occurs.
Marc S. Ryan is a healthcare consultant writing on the emerging healthcare landscape and health plan issues. He also writes on foreign affairs, politics, and current events.
