…erstand a statistical concept, but this illustration demonstrates precisely why we use Bayes’ Rule. If we want to be less wrong about the world, then additional information should change our beliefs, and Bayesian Inference updates our estimates using a systematic method.
…stimate of the probability I am asleep from over 70% to 3.42%. This shows the power of Bayes’ Rule: we were able to update our initial estimate for the situation by incorporating more information. While we might have intuitively done this anyway, thinking about it in terms of formal equations al…
… posterior probability equals the likelihood times the prior divided by the no
rmal… posterior probability equals the likelihood times the prior divided by the normalization constant. This short equation leads to the entire field of Bayesian Inference, an effective method for reasoning about the world.