India: The Balancing Act- West to East

Unless you are the most Amish guy who has gotten rid of his seclusion from the world for this article ( p.s. Thanks), you know about the turmoil world politics is in right now. Russia is engaged in a major-scale war on a far smaller nation of Ukraine. Europe is in a war-ready state, which f.y.i is never good. The U.S. is pumping weapons into Europe and continuing its “Russian Humilation” strategy to bring them to the negotiating table. Putin having a couldn’t care less attitude to achieve “Unity of Russian motherland,” which is eerily similar sounding to that of Hitler, with just feminism propped in the slogan for modern times. (that’s a joke, please try not to be offended). Unluckily despite Europe’s world view, where good, a.k.a. the West, is facing evil, a.k.a Russia, there are more players to this party. South-East Asia, The Middle East, Africa, South America, Australia (though it is part of the five-eye system, so maybe not separate). Unluckily I can only cover so much in a medium article, so India will be the side I present to you.

India, supposedly a natural ally of the West based on a shared principle of Democracy and Rule of Law; a reality-checked ally of Russia who (may be out of its selfish interest ) hasn’t left India alone or aloof on the global forums or through wars is in a conundrum. The West, though, claims a shared common ground has failed India throughout history. Some were almost attacking the Indian Navy Fleet when India was upholding the banner of democracy in Dhaka or when the West has taken the high moral ground lecturing India and trying to break its spirit by sanctions or resolutions in United Nations. Listing all these reasons will be a new blog in itself.

Oil Issue

So, Let’s get down to the actual current business. The U.S. and Europe are trying to supposedly stop the “Russian War Machine” by stopping its Gas and Oil cash flow. The U.S. already had a ban, and now Europe has planned a similar prohibition for oil and plans to rid dependence, not immediately though systematically keeping “ our people as a primary priority.” Unlike the West other nations don’t have the same buying power that a surge in oil prices can take a hit without significant problems. The basic case is The Middle East hasn’t increased its supply substantially, and there are sanctions by the West on Iranian and Venezuelan oil already, so the supply is screwed. And the post-pandemic recovering world demand is not reducing.

Europe’s decision to ban most Russian oil imports is based on a simple calculation. Because the E.U. accounts for about half of Russia’s oil exports, an embargo would roughly halve Russia’s oil-export revenues. As I said, they often forget the Others. Because short-term demand for oil is particularly inelastic, even a slight slowdown in the flow of oil reaching global markets can generate huge price increases. By the basic Demand-Supply principle of economics, there is less oil available, and income from oil sales increases in the near term. To put it another way, rising prices will improve Russia’s export earnings, providing the impression that the sanctions have failed. In the long run, the costs of course, will go down.

But, oil is a commodity that can be traded. Countries like India and China, which consume twice as much oil as the E.U. combined, can buy the oil that Europe would have purchased otherwise. As a result, it is impossible to halt Russia’s oil shipments. It’s also worth remembering that the E.U. embargo only applies to seaborne Russian crude oil imports, not pipeline imports. Because seaborne oil, which must be loaded onto tankers anyhow, can be redirected to other locations, this partial restriction — the outcome of a problematic agreement — is likely to be mostly ineffectual. Despite these shortcomings, the West wants us to be a party to this and not import Russian oil. Well, if the West hasn’t been paying attention during this very war, India’s neighborhood had significant political changes, and none were the outcome of a revolution but rather an unsettling economy with “high fuel prices!” being a shared common cry by the people. So for the National Intrest and India’s own population, it is impractical. So India is looking for oil, and Russia, due to an internal contracting economy, has oil to sell; hence demand matches supply. Thus, India bought just over six percent of its imported requirements from Russia before it was 2 percent, leading to an outcry by “ the morally superior west.”

Condemnation and Partnership

So this “oil issue” being dealt away, but we still have two more criticisms to counter. One about the principles and precedent being established by Russia and our refusal to condemn them per se. Also, how the West sees this as India being “shaky” w.r.t Russian confrontation and could be a proof for reliability as a partner in the Indian Ocean, which apparently according to the West has just turned into a new possible war theater. So, Let’s handle these criticisms one by one.

As already covered, Russia is attacking a much smaller European nation of Ukraine. India, since day one, has called for a cessation of violence on both sides and a diplomatic solution to be reached between the two bilaterally. Even the PM talked to the head of states of both countries. But Diplomacy has failed time and time again due to reservations by both of them (Note: After the recent battles in Eastern Ukraine, some new diplomatic channels may open.) It condemned the violence in Bucha against civilians and called for an independent investigation. This is how a maturely India has been handling the conflict. For the West, it’s “join us or against us.” For India to take a hardline against Russia is impractical due to historical and strategic reasons. Our defense is quite dependent on them for spares while we push for indigenization.

Now, let’s see about the precedent; some European nations have the audacity of comparing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Indo-China conflict, having no parallels whatsoever. As E.A.M. said, India is perfectly capable of dealing with the Chinese threat on our border. The whole debate on this site is ignored. Australia regularly facing off with Chinese P.L.A. with a leader having expansionism on his mind. Taiwan is a nation dependent on U.S. support to fend off a Chinese takeover ( 2nd Afghanistan ?). All the other states can’t defend themselves and their territorial integrity. Being a Super-power requires power projection; hence, the West needs an Elephant to douse the Dragon’s fire. Europe has to grow from the mindset that “its problem is the world’s problem with no vice-versa applicable.