Daily Covid-Insights and Charts — March 25
Firstly, let’s start with today’s charts. Here’s Cases vs. Deaths.
And here are the total cases for the top 8 countries by cases plus UK & Canada. I’ve expanded the number of countries based on feedback from the readers. Given the chart is more crowded now, I’ve started using a different charting tool that is interactive (move your mouse over a country — you’ll see what I mean). Let me know what you think.
1) Sadly there were 211 deaths in the US yesterday, almost double the day before. It’s the largest number of Covid-19 deaths the US has had so far. It shouldn’t be a surprise given the consistent increase in cases in the US over the last two weeks and is likely to get worse before it gets better. As I’d mentioned yesterday, the US’s death curve has now surpassed China’s. Please remember that fatalities are a laggard indicator due to the time between infection and the outcome of the case.
2) There were 8789 new cases in the US yesterday vs 11236 the day before. It’s too early to tell if that’s the sign of a peak as Italy has had a few false peaks in the past. That has also brought down the 7-Day CDGR (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) to 36% from 39% the day before.
3) After two days of declining cases and deaths, Italy had an increase in both, 5289 cases vs. 4789 and 741 deaths vs 601. This is Italy’s second false peak.
4) The silver lining with Italy is that the 7-day Compounded Daily Growth Rate for both cases and deaths are in decline, 11.89% vs 12.53% and 14.86% vs 15.32%, respectively.
5) Spain, the UK, Iran and Canada recorded their highest number of new cases in a single day. Germany and France did so the day before.
6) About Canada: You might remember my note yesterday about the way Quebec changed its reporting methodology, which caused a surge in cases in the press. My original position was to include those but turns out the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, where I get my data from, is not. Since they’re the real experts, I’m going with their position for now and will keep an eye on this today to figure out the ideal approach.
7) Both China and South Korea recorded numbers consistent with their trend over the last week: 99 new cases and four deaths for China, and 100 new cases and six deaths for South Korea. However, China did record its first community infection in Wuhan in a few days. There is increasing concern that there might be a larger issue which you can read about here.
8) Below are the charts for the 7-day Compounded Daily Growth Rates for both cases and deaths. There is some good news in there as the growth rates for most of the hardest-hit countries are declining.
I think it’s reasonable to argue that the various containment measures by different countries seem to be getting results. What I’ll be watching for is how long the countries can keep those measures in place, improve them, and whether they ease those measures too early due to economic realities and pressures.
