What Cori Bush and Her Progressive Base Won for Saint Louis
The good people of St. Louis and Missouri won some decisive victories on August 7. Wesley Bell unseated long-time incumbent Bob McCulloch as County Prosecutor in what is easily the most unexpected upset in local politics. Prop A, Missouri’s “Right to Work” initiative, went down in flames. Progressive democratic candidates won easy victories in districts where Democrats haven’t run in years. Overall: we have a lot of celebrating to do.
Cori Bush and her supporters suffered a disappointing loss. Her effort to displace Lacy Clay failed, and he will go on to an easy re-election this November. I was one of those supporters. While I knew it was a longshot, I was still hopeful, especially after she brought home some crucial endorsements that she would become her the first woman, and first black woman, to represent Missouri’s First.
There’s no way to call a loss a success. It’s bullshit in sports and even more so in politics. Winners are winners, and Clay will continue his reign as the second son in a political dynasty that has controlled this district for two entire generations.
Bush had her hands full running against this particular incumbent. Clay’s father was a lion in Congress, and admittedly, it’s tough to question or even condemn his son’s voting record. Clay is unquestionably liberal, even progressive, on most issues. He’s pro-Medicare-for-All. He’s clearly a defender of immigrant rights. There’s also no question that he’s pro-choice, pro-gun control reform, pro-criminal justice reform, and loudly and proudly anti-Trump.
The question that Bush supporters (I being one of them) is just how passionate he is about those issues when they intersect with the literal community that he represents. He barely set foot on local soil to acknowledge that there was a campaign going on. (He barely sets foot on local soil ever.) If you review his social media feeds, you will be hard pressed to see an announcement about a single campaign stump speech, appearance, or debate (namely because he didn’t make any). Locally-speaking, the guy is a no-show almost all the time, having done only one town hall since he was reelected in 2016.
My feeling about Clay is that he won’t do much to wrinkle those nice suits he’s always wearing. We live in an era where we need leaders who will go above and beyond to protect our democracy right now. While I can’t take direct aim at Clay’s voting record, I am concerned that he’s not the guy who will chain himself to a building to defend our Republic. By great comparison: Bush unquestionably is. It’s why I voted for her.
Bush’s Numbers: Nothing to Sneeze At
I am hardly alone in my decision to vote for Cori.
While she lost by a considerable margin, consider that to Clay’s 81,426 votes, Bush claimed 53,056, and this is with two contenders in the race who took almost 10,000 votes (probably from her).
Clay won his own slew of predictable endorsements. Union members are familiar with his support of workers’ rights and he has been a consistent voice against Prop A (to be clear: Bush also supports a higher minimum wage and was vociferously anti-Prop A). In an election that was driven in no small part by union member turnout: Clay is the name they know. Cori is not.
Let’s go back to those numbers, though. All congressional districts are roughly the same size in terms of population (plus or minus 700,000 based on the Census count.) So, consider that Alex Ocasio Cortez NY’s 14th CD has around 712,000 people. She won her primary with just 15,000 votes (to her opponent Crawley’s 11,000). Ocasio Cortez has become, in her short tenure (she still has yet to win her seat, although it’s assumed she will since she is running in a blue stronghold) the face of the progressive left, and Cori Bush literally won three times the votes in a much, much redder state. Bush won MORE than the total votes of Ocasio Cortez’s primary.
If you continue this comparison: Clay won somewhere around 5X that of Crowley, the current incumbent who was on the short list to become the next House speaker. Bush wasn’t in any congressional contest. She took second in what could be the region’s toughest horse race.
I looked at numbers from my old district (where I lived for 10 years until 2016) California’s 34th (a seat formerly held by Xavier Becerra, California’s now Attorney General). A paltry 20% of the registered voters in Los Angeles turned out for the Super Tuesday primary in 2018 (to the 80% who stayed home…you do know who is running the country right now, right?). Jimmy Gomez, the 34th’s incumbent, easily won reelection with 54,000 votes. This is a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic district, during an election cycle where immigration is, to say the least, a crucial topic. Even in that scenario: Bush has inspired more voters to show up.
I can’t make a direct correlation between these two districts, but I will raise this point. What Bush managed to do is prove that coasts are not the hotbed of progressive politics everyone assumes them to be or at least they are not the only crucibles that can develop and foist progressive candidates into the national spotlight.
Bush’s turnout certainly speak otherwise. That is what the literal numbers say. In a region that is far less populous than either Los Angeles or New York, her numbers are vastly superior to similar primaries and indicative of a very engaged progressive voting base. Her popularity — and populism — is not a fluke. She was a real contender, and one with no resources other than a mobilized, enthusiastic, and very young base. She won those votes the hard way, with feet on the street, handwritten postcards, canvassing, and passion.
According to a recent article in The Intercept, Democratic turnout in Missouri is up by 85% since 2010. Progressives like Bush (and Bell) are drawing younger voters who may not otherwise engage in primaries or any local election. Her numbers show, conclusively, that progressive politics is alive and well in this region.
I do not doubt for a second that she has a political future. Her strong turnout could indicate to Clay that he has more to worry about than keeping his suits pressed. Even his St. Louis American endorsement (linked above), for example, is at best tepid.
The local, grassroots progressive apparatus that worked for Bush and Bell now have experience under their belts. The First is building on key lessons and forging ahead with a new generation of grassroots political leaders who are learning how to win elections the hard way. Clay may have kept his seat for now, but in 2018, we showed up. We are awake. We are paying attention. In 2020, we just may win.
