Hiring Forecast & Job Market post Covid19 Crisis & Lockdown

The Covid19 crisis has brought with it tremendous negativity and a depressing outlook for the economy and industrial output. Financial forecasts suggest an even slower GDP growth and according to Santosh Mehrotra, a human development economist and professor at the Centre for Informal Sector and Labour Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, about 136 million non-contractual workers in India from the non-agricultural sectors, are the most vulnerable in the aftermath of the corona outbreak.

However, all all may not be as bleak as it sounds. Though a majority of companies will offset their losses which will result in pay-cuts and layoffs, there are a few industries which will continue to hire and offer hikes.

Post Covid19 Lockdown — Hiring Outlook 2020 by Get Set Resumes

At Get Set Resumes, we analysed the job market and tried to figure out which companies are still posting new jobs and which ones are on the verge of laying people off. Below is our finding in brief.

Industries that will continue to hire

1. Pharma & Healthcare: Needless to say, these sectors have been the most in demand and after the crisis, there is a lot of scope for R&D, production (medicines, equipment like ventilators, etc.), as well as inventory. Both these sectors will continue to hire.
2. Retail (FMCG) & E-Commerce: Another 2 sectors which saw a lot of sales. With people stocking and piling up essentials, and the lockdown enforcing everyone to stay inside and opt for deliveries, the post Covid period will see more hiring here. In fact companies like Walmart predict an addition of over 15,000 jobs in Walmart stores alone!
3. Teleworking Software / Tele Support: With most companies opting for Work-from-home during the lockdown, software and tools like Slack, Zoom, MS Teams saw a huge increase in downloads and usage. Tech Support also continued to provide assistance to teams facing challenges in delivering assignments. All the companies in the development of such software will hire even more people in the coming year. Slack, Zoom have posted new jobs as we speak.
4. Insurance: There has never been a more pressing need for the general public to buy health insurance and mediclaim policy. With most providers offering mediclaim against Covid19, this sector should clearly see an increase in the number of subscribers, and in turn an increase in the sales.
5. Supply Chain: With Retail and E-Commerce seeing a boom, we need more robust supply chains which can function whenever a crisis strikes or another Force Majeure situation arises. From Delivery Boys to shipping trucks, there is a need to invent better models and automations in this sector. With technology in hand, companies in this space will hire and engage in new partnerships.

Industries that will post losses and enforce pay-cuts

1. Automotive: The automotive sector was already down. Now with demands plummeting and income-losses, the sector will only see darker days until demand increases.
2. IT / ITeS: The IT sector has seen loss of business in the last 2 months due to the covid crisis. With majority of western countries (US/Europe) in a severe state, the sector cannot expect a revival soon. There will be delay in payments and new offshore business / clients. Moreover, restrictions in travel will add to the woes of this sector. Apart from indigenous product companies, the overall IT sector will see a dip in hirings this summer.
3. Banking: Another sector which is down due to / OR / causing the poor GDP growth. Though the government has awarded stimulus packages and the federal bank (RBI) has come up with positive measures, the banking sector continues to see sluggish growth.
4. Aviation: The most severely affected sector after Tourism would be aviation. According to India Ratings and Research, international and domestic passenger load factors dropped by 570 basis points year-on-year and 100 basis points year-on-year, respectively, beginning Feb 2020. Whether the lockdown continues or not, a lot of people would continue to postpone their travel plans for some more months even after the crisis ends. Visas would also be difficult to obtain for international travel.
5. Real Estate & Construction: Low income growth, pay-cuts, and job losses will affect real estate in a big way. Good thing for buyers is that prices would be slashed for some time. But with no new purchases or construction in the last 1 month and maybe for another one, the sector will see job losses.
6. Telecom: With the countries biggest players (Airtel and Vodafone Idea) already under heavy debts, this sector does not seem to see brighter days ahead.
7. Tourism: Without a doubt, the most affected sector. Hospitality and tourism will continue to stay affected until travellers are sure that the disease is long gone! According to CII, by October 2020 more than 50% of the tourism and hospitality industry can go bust with a possible loss of over 20 million jobs. Though something tells me that the domestic tourism may suddenly see a surge once the lockdown ends. We will have to wait and see.
8. Engineering: Manufacturing and Engineering sectors have come to a standstill due to the lockdowns enforced. In just one city in Tamil Nadu, Tiruppur, has 1,500 exporting companies employing 6+lakh people. With no production, almost Rs. 5,000 crore in payments remain unrealized with new orders on hold which add another Rs. 2,500 crore. This is just from one city and one sub-sector — Textile. It is not very difficult to project this to the rest of the sector. Manufacturing employs 56.4 million people in India. Add Engineering services and we have almost 200 million workers — contractual and non-contractual. Needless to say, there will be tremendous job losses and pay-cuts for the manufacturing and engineering sectors.
9. Ports / Trading: We can forget Chinese imports for some time. And exports to the West will see a sluggish upward trend till the lockdown is lifted from the American and European continents. Most trading, import-export, and trans-shipping companies will be affected due to this crisis and will post losses. No hirings expected here!
10. Retail (Clothing): The non-essential part of Retail which employs over 37 million is expected to face job losses as well.. With malls and stores closed, the front-end staff will have to face the music. And if the lockdown continues, a lot of employees will be asked to leave their jobs.
11. Others: In addition to these, over 136 million non-agricultural jobs are at immediate risk, based on data from National Sample Survey (NSS) and Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS). These include non-contractual and casual labourers, and also self-employed small businessmen.

While times are tough, it is important to stay positive. Businesses are suffering but then, every business is. It is important to see this storm through and we are sure the market will see brighter days by the dawn of 2021.

For now, Stay Safe, Stay Home, and Stay Put!

Sources: Get Set Resumes internal data, LiveMint, Forbes, Economic Times, Bloomberg Quint