“Executives and investors commonly rely on their own experience and information in making forecasts (the “inside view”) and don’t place sufficient weight on the rates of past occurrences (the “outside view”).”
A few notes I took after reading Michael Mauboussin’s Base Rate book
Stefan Cheplick

Further, the knowledge of the “outside view” if often shunned in favor of the “inside view”. IE. The fallacy that “Those that don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.” has been disproved time and again by World Leaders that have an expansive knowledge of history. Yet, repeat it due to believing that there is a singular and superior aspect to their standing, holdings or surrounding entourage.

The latter is most obvious in regards to “Super Power” nations engaging in war with a gorilla enemy, although they know that historically, defeating a gorilla force in totality is nearly impossible.