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Terribly simplistic analysis. I would dipute many assumptions here.

First off 20,000 DAO holders, who are actually into the DAO because of their belief in the Ethereum platform itself. These are the first adopters taht Ethereum needs before it even reaches the early mainstream adopters. To write those people off would be a bigger disaster than to setback the ethereum price in short term. And heres the thing, your analysis has zero time sensitivity. You state that Miners win, ETH holders win. But thats likely the immediate effect only. If we look into the result 6 months, 12 months 24 months into the future we could easily be seeing a very different outcome from this game. I would suspect that the very short term price declines as a result of hard fork, but that on a 6 month time scale we would already be seeing a price recovery that would be higher than in case of no fork. Thats because the adopters will still be onboard, there will not be a huge taint to the ethereum ecosystem by way of common knowledge that 20,000 people had the tokens stolen from an exploit representing 14% of eth at the time. It will be a stronger ecosystem having seen the community come to a consensus to actually come to a 51% approval for hard fork (I think thats a positive precedence not negative surprisingly). Ethereum will not take off without dapps, dapps will not be successful without users, users will not adopt if they see a history where they can be ridiculed and villified on top of losing everything they invest in ethereum simply because they werent able to be sure that the code want checked a thousand times by the best minds in the ecosystem.

No hardfork will see price jump after the no event, and then steadily decline or rise at a much slower rate. Hardfork will se price drop and then seeadily climb at an increasing rate, Id say that crossover would be within 6 months.

So in short, in the 6 month or longer timeframe, no HF means all lose, HF means all win.

Please expand your analysis.

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