As much as I hope, I think the fossil fuel crisis will be solved long before adoption of vegan lifestyle will reach 20% of the population; huge head start. The ethanol for cars has a shelf life, too, as electric approaches parity. Your quotation (which you haven’t cited) shows good direction, but it’s that kind of good news about consumption practices that makes people celebrate by driving their SUV to a steakhouse. Personally, I wouldn’t trust a Washington think tank as they seem to justify the totally broken food system they’re so proud of, but I’ll give the IFPRI the benefit of the doubt. Yes, Americans already overproduce food and none of it gets to Africa; what does get to Africa, a continent that may triple in population by 2050, is the middle class American dream, to drive big cars and eat big steaks. As slow as the vegan movement I fear will be, 80–90% of the next billion people will be born in Asia and Africa. Meat consumption is already on the decline in North America, prompting beef and dairy exports to China.
Cowspiracy goes into great detail about the effects of agriculture on our oceans, but it was Paul Watson of Sea Shepherds I had in mind when I said Big Animal Ag is the #1 ocean killer. http://ecowatch.com/2015/10/01/paul-watson-oceans/ Ruminants are the #1 anthropogenic source of methane, directly, though I suppose as soon as it’s recognized that the climate heating up is our fault, bogs and permafrost melting are anthropogenic too. http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/ch4.html
Farmers CAN rotate livestock. They used to do so, but find me a farmer. Now they’re conglomerate “growers” and agribusiness would rather lobby for more corporate freedom and profits than play ball. I do believe it’s possible; Geoff Lawton’s “chicken train” suggests hope, but I would feed the eggs back to the chickens and let them live out their natural lives, but hey, we vegans are softies. http://geofflawton.com/
I’ve heard that supposition that vegans have as much blood on our hands as omnivores. Simple math says that omnivores must add on all the blood (and the fertilizer) from the (GMO) food of the animals they ate. Looking at the bigger picture, livestock is also responsible for the massive loss in biodiversity, death of animals from deforestation.
There’s more in your response that I haven’t addressed so I’ll give it more thought. Thanks for the exercise! What is your take on Cowspiracy?