The Past is Prologue: How the Democratic Primary Unfolds From Here
Less than 60 days to the first Democratic primary voting, the race is very much in flux. But any outcome that might come to pass would actually be a pretty direct echo of a modern-era Democratic primary (or a parallel universe version of that primary). Here’s what might happen:
The Obama 2008
The analogy: A young, relatively inexperienced Midwesterner uses a message of healing the country to deflect attention from his lack of executive experience. He would be the first of his community to ever be President, which somewhat compensates for his lack of left-wing bona fides. Very good at raising money from educated coastal elites, he uses that advantage to build an operation in Iowa that shocks the world and defeats the presumptive winner, going on to a hard-fought but decisive primary campaign victory.
The candidate: Pete Buttigieg
The counter: Obama was a Senator, not a small-town Mayor. He had more of a national following as a result of the 2004 keynote at the DNC Convention, and didn’t really face a hard-left challenge that undermined him during the primary contest.
Odds: 5:2
The Kerry 2004
The analogy: A long-standing and well-respected senior statesman of the party comes into the race as the presumptive winner but stumbles early and often, opening the door for a left wing challenge that seems to be gaining momentum (Dean). At the same time, a fellow centrist with youthful appeal threatens to siphon away his base (Edwards). But he surprisingly wins Iowa, changing the narrative about the race and his ability to win. After winning NH the following week, the race is over.
The candidate: Joe Biden
The counter: None, really, other than that Biden probably doesn’t have the type of endorsement Kerry had up his sleeve right before the caucus (in Kerry’s case, a Vietnam vet whose life he saved). If Biden surprisingly wins Iowa and NH, the race would effectively be over going into Super Tuesday.
Odds: 5:2
The McGovern 1972
The analogy: A hard-fought campaign for the direction of the Democratic party after 8 years of holding the Presidency results in a repudiation of the left in favor of an establishment administration official (Humphrey over McCarthy in 1968). After suffering a humiliating defeat in the general election to a candidate widely seen as beatable, the left re-asserts itself four years later and claims the nomination, repudiating the establishment (McGovern over Muskie).
The candidate: Bernie Sanders
The counter: Bernie doesn’t have the left lane all to himself, which limits his upside.
Odds: 4:1
The Clinton 1992
The analogy: A moderate, well-credentialed candidate seems to have a hard time gaining traction in a race with a lot of big names and a large number of candidates, even though none of the candidates seem to have broad appeal. Although he is well-liked and in the mix the whole time, he just can’t seem to break through. But a surprising finish that puts him into the top tier of candidates, not even at the top (third place in NH), allows him to claim the mantle of “comeback kid” and get a second look from voters as the primary season continues.
The candidate: Amy Klobuchar (or Cory Booker)
The counter: The primary season is shorter this year, so the breakthrough will need to come early (Iowa) and likely will need to be coupled with an otherwise muddled result in the first few states.
Odds: 9:1
The Dean 2004
The analogy: An economic populist from New England with highly specific policy proposals gains momentum throughout the fall against a boring establishment candidate going into the elections. The caucuses seem tailor-made for his enthusiastic base. There are concerns he can’t connect with black voters and is too far left for the general election, especially when the stakes are defeating a dangerous, deeply unpopular President seeking his second term. In a parallel universe, though, Dean pulls it off and grinds out a victory over the establishment candidates.
The candidate: Elizabeth Warren
The counter: Obviously Warren would want to counter this since Dean did not win. But if Kerry had not won Iowa, Dean could have won the nomination, so her outperforming Dean rests on stopping Biden in Iowa.
Odds: 11:2
The Humphrey 1968
The analogy: A divided party being pulled in multiple different directions arrives at the convention in the upper Midwest (Chicago then, Milwaukee now) with no candidate with enough pledged delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. The party goes for the safest choice, pleasing effectively no one and alienating core constituencies such as minorities and the hard left.
The candidate: Michael Bloomberg
The counter: Bloomberg, given the amount of money he will be spending on Super Tuesday races, is likely to come into the convention with delegates and the attractive pitch of not needing to fundraise for the general, which will be important given the short stretch to Election Day. But even then a 78-year old former Republican billionaire who implemented stop-and-frisk could cause enough consternation to prevent him from getting the nomination. That might open the door to a left-field candidate who can garner consensus, like Sherrod Brown. But while a contested convention may be fascinating to watch, it is unlikely to result in electoral victory in the fall.
Odds: 19:1
