Crypto Currency Note 2022.03.05
Continue to go according to the previous prediction, and it is the weekend again. There should be no major market events. You can choose to rest. If you reach the position of 3.8w, as long as it does not fall sharply, you can play a short-term play and a rebound, and find a small position. I feel that the position support of 3.8w is much stronger than that of 4.0 and 4.2w. I mentioned earlier that the bottom chip structure on the chain is this position, where the selling pressure is relatively small and stretching is relatively easy. But 3.8w eventually I expect it will be broken.
According to the statistics of Glassnode, institutions have recently established bitcoin risk exposure by buying discounted GBTC. Although there were few investment operations between September and November last year, there were obvious buying operations after entering December. Among them, ARK currently holds nearly $500 million in GBTC shares. It is worth noting that the current GBTC discount rate is nearly 30%.
Everyone should know about the news about Sister Mutou’s continued reduction in holdings today. The ARK Ark Fund’s position data shows that since February 22, ARK Fund has sold a total of 213,645 shares of Grayscale GBTC. In fact, the trend of Bitcoin during this period is also a downward trend. So why do institutions build bitcoin risk exposure by buying discounted GBTC? Anxiety symptoms. Too much discount will not last long.
The Terra ecological development organization Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) tweeted today that due to the high demand for UST, the Terra protocol is minting the maximum amount of UST every day, and many people turn to the curve pool to obtain UST, which causes the curve pool to become unbalanced. To that end, at a recent meeting of the LFG Governing Council, the committee voted to exchange 5 million LUNA in the LFG vault for UST (~$450 million) over the next two weeks. After that, LFG will sell UST into the currently unbalanced curve pool, and the proceeds of the sale will be used to buy BTC to augment existing reserves. According to the members of the LFG council, the 5 million LUNA will be exchanged for UST through the mechanism of destroying and minting.
This wave of luna is strong, mainly due to the news of 1 billion capital injection that has reversed the market, but this is only temporary, and ultimately depends on the development of terra, the project is expected to be too high, so there are still some dangerous signals in the long run .
After watching the trend of the big cake for a long time, it seems that the support of 3.8w is getting stronger and stronger based on the data on the chain. A large number of chips are fixed, bought and transferred at this position. It takes courage to do this kind of operation after the bad news comes out. It is the same as what I have analyzed before. That is to say, even if the Fed is hanging on to raise interest rates this month, it will not be bad if it does not exceed 25 points, then 3.8w The selling pressure will be much less in the position, which is also a point worth fighting for. In the future trend problems, we need to wait until the real time to analyze, and it is useless to analyze too far now.