Ghost Boat: An eerily similar story from 2011
During my research on how ocean currents may have altered the course of the Ghost Boat, I stumbled upon a similar investigation into the passage of refugees across the Mediterranean Sea:
The Forensic Oceanography project was launched in summer 2011 to support a coalition of NGOs demanding accountability for the deaths of migrants in the central Mediterranean Sea…The efforts were focused on what is now known as the “left-to-die boat” case, in which sixty-three migrants lost their lives while drifting for fourteen days within the NATO maritime surveillance area.
In the early hours of March 27th, 2011, a vessel carrying 72 refugees bound for Europe set off from Tripoli, Libya. 13 days later, after drifting through a heavily monitored area of the Mediterranean without sufficient food or water, the boat beached in Zlitan, 176km south-east of Tripoli. 61 refugees had died on the boat; another two died shortly after making landfall.
To summarise the report by the Forensic Architecture organisation (which I highly recommend reading), a team of investigators was able to track the movements of the boat; which had run out of fuel and began to drift with the currents approximately 24 hours after departure. Shockingly, the refugees were stranded in an area of the Mediterranean that was under heavy surveillance by NATO forces due to the conflict in Libya at the time. Although the boat was spotted; its position recorded by passing vessels and aircraft, and the refugees aboard had placed a distress call, little was done to alleviate their plight.
Drifting at sea
As dangersquirrel wrote, the ocean currents active in the Mediterranean sea are relatively stable and show a tendency to flow from Italy towards the coast of North Africa.
Research conducted by Forensic Architecture in partnership with oceanographer Richard Limeburner of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution supports this theory: The ‘Left-to-die’ boat, which was headed for the Italian port of Lampedusa (North-Northwest of its point of origin), began to drift South-Southwest towards the Libyan coast. The image below shows the position of the boat based on predictions drawn from ocean activity, eyewitness accounts given by the survivors, and geospatial data transmitted by the satellite phone on board:
Source: Forensic Architecture.org
Parallels with the Ghost Boat’s journey
The Forensic Architecture team’s investigation reveals details remarkably similar to what is known of the Ghost Boat: Both vessels left Libya (though the exact point of origin of the Ghost Boat is still uncertain) and were headed for Italy. Both were carrying refugees who likely had little or no experience of navigating open water. In the case of the ‘Left to die’ boat, the vessel ran out of fuel 24 hours after leaving Tripoli: Since we know that the practice of the Jackals (human traffickers) is to purposely send boats out to sea with limited supply of fuel — the intention being that they will be rescued by patrolling ships, fishing vessels, or Coastguard —we may make the same assumption about the Ghost Boat.
A crucial part of Forensic Architecture’s investigation was interviewing survivors of the ordeal to glean information about the boat’s course, intended destination, and the timeline of its journey. Unfortunately, we are lacking this information as no trace of the refugees aboard the Ghost Boat has yet been found.
Regardless, I believe that the work done by Forensic Architecture, coupled with what we know about ocean drift patterns in the Mediterranean Sea, applies to our investigation into the Ghost Boat: Had the vessel run out of fuel before making landfall in Europe, it’s likely that the same currents that carried the ‘Left-to-die’ boat would have pushed it back towards North Africa; drifting for days until it beached or was intercepted by another vessel.
Next steps
I have reached out to the Forensic Architecture team and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution to ask if they can provide us with learnings from their investigation, which might be of use in ours.
If we continue to both map the position and movements of other vessels in the area using the data provided by Kirk Pettinga, it should be possible to cross-reference these vessels positions roughly within the expected drift pattern of the Ghost Boat. This would narrow the list of vessels which might have seen something of note or received a distress call.
The above work requires making assumptions as to where the boat might have run out of fuel, so identifying a means in which we might track its position, heading and last-known whereabouts is crucial. Earlier, I wrote that the presence of a satellite phone on board may allow for the vessel’s movements to be tracked. This technique was used by the Forensic Architecture team to pinpoint the drifting boat’s movements.
Thank you for reading this far. If you have any information or comments to share, please do!
