Why Pakistan’s Nuclear threat is only a bluff?
Last week I had written a summary of the changing geo-dynamics in South Asia and how a Nuclear war could break out between India and Pakistan anytime. However, having researched on this subject for a bit longer, I have to come to believe that much of the chest thumping and war mongering from both sides is actually a hoax whereas in reality, both countries cannot afford to go for a war at such crucial stages of their respective economic life cycles. However, the most serious narrative that has been taking rounds in social media, especially within the Indian circle is the Pakistani threat of using Tactical Nuclear Weapons in response to India’s advancement into her territory regardless of the nature of India’s targets, which only consist of the terror camps in PoK and not any Pak army camps. But, realistically speaking, can the Pakistan of today afford to do a Nuclear strike? Or in other words, is the notion that “Pakistan has nothing to lose, only India does ” hold any account? I don’t think so. Pakistan has everything to lose in a war like India does. If the same question was asked in 2001, the answer would have been a “Yes” or a “May be”. But the Pakistan of today is set for a game changer of a project in CPEC. While the legality of this project can be debated given that it passes through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region, there is no doubt that a crippled Pakistani economy needs the CPEC to achieve some credibility. In the event of a war with India, the CPEC will take a huge setback. There are 7k Chinese workers stationed in Pakistan protected by around 15k Pak soldiers. A war situation can immediately cause panic within the Chinese authorities who are obviously very much concerned about the safety of their workers and this can in turn lead to workers getting transported back to their homes in China thus stalling the CPEC project. And then who knows? it might get scraped all together owing to the colossal damage that a war can bring about.
What consolidates this argument is the fact that following the surgical strikes conducted by India against Pakistan’s wishes yesterday, there has been no significant uproar in Pakistan demanding to counter what is essentially an Indian intrusion into the territories occupied by their army. In fact, they have been denying the occurrence of the surgical strike in the first place.
So, the tactical nuclear weapon armoury that Pakistan has been fiddling with of late, is according to me, a deception purely aimed to prevent any Indian incursion to Pok. In the unlikely event that they actually go ahead and use nuclear arms, it will heavily polarise the world opinion leading to a full fledged nuclear war and Pakistan like India, has everything to lose , contrary to what is being circulated.