What does the vote on the deal means for the UK, and what is Brexit anyway?
On 15th January 2019, at around 7:30 pm, the parliamentarians voted against The May Deal, creating history in the process. So, what is The May Deal? What actually is Brexit and what does it mean to us, common people?
If you haven’t heard of Brexit, either you live under a rock or don’t have any connection to any form of media at all (that includes Social Media, and it’s kinda impossible to stay away from that). Of course, it’s always possible that fate keeps you away from such chaos, but not to worry! The concept is fairly complicated, but it’s also one of the reasons this article exists, so sit back, grab your biggest cup of hot chocolate, and be prepared for the most chaotic story of your life. (If you have, skip to the end for what might happen next)
It all started when the previous Prime Minister (David Cameron) went to the EU parliament to vote in his House of Commons for a referendum (a vote on a critical decision). Basically, the government is run by a decision making policy. Any decision that the Prime Minister makes must be debated between the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The House of Commons debate any opinion first, then it is sent to the House of Lords to ensure the common public opinion is withheld correctly. Often, the House of Commons’ vote is the same as the House of Lords, however, if the House of Lords rejects an opinion, the said opinion, which may be a law or the correct use of a law, will be sent back to the House of Commons for further debating. On this occasion, David Cameron presented one decision to the government, one which was accepted: Should we let the public decide on if we leave the EU?
“Today the main, overriding purpose of the European Union is different: not to win peace, but to secure prosperity.” -David Cameroon
Of course, this lets all chaos let loose. The whole country divided into two parts: Remain and Brexit. Confusion spread fast, but the Brexit memes spread faster. Observe:
The government, and pretty much the whole population, believed it would be a landslide Remain victory, as Cameron so strongly believed when he decided on calling the vote. It was a massive stab in the back, then, when the country voted for a Brexit. As had been happening since 1920, any opinion made publicly by the current ruling party was often echoed by the general public. Therefore, it was a massive shock to the government when, on 23 June 2016, the country voted to leave the Union that it had been a part of for so long.
It was no surprise, then, when David Cameron, Prime Minister of the UK for 5 straight years, decided it was for the betterment of the country if he resigned. And resigned he did. In a speech outside 10 Downing Street, David Cameron not only announced the opinion of the referendum with his own opinion added in, but with a sad note telling the country that the referendum indicated the country did not want what he wanted and therefore had no confidence in him. He believed there was the new Prime Minister due in the country, one that would be able to guide the country through the turbulent times that were sure to follow. After much searching, the government selected Theresa May, a 60-year-old woman who no one had ever paid much attention to before, aside from being an OK home secretary.
Still with me? OK. Here comes part 2. Theresa May was far from a popular choice on behalf of the public. Going back to how parliament works, you may remember the voting system. The people who could vote in parliament were the people who had been elected as the head of their community. Whichever party has more people elected as a head of a district wins the leadership of the country. At the election on 7th May 2015, the Conservative just won, with a majority of only 12 seats. But Theresa May didn’t think that was enough. So, in 2017, she called another election, hoping for there to be more people backing her in parliament. Critically, she lost quite a few seats. This was a terrible thing for May, as it meant the country didn’t like her at all. Many expected her to back down and give Labour Party the reigns, hopefully helping the country in its troublesome times. But, resolutely, she held the power and managed to form a minority government with other parties.
But she did not lose a second in trying, and trying is the key word here, to gain back the confidence of the public. Again and again, she was faced with problems by both her own MPs and the EU. And again and again, she managed to combat them. Impossibly, after several meetings with the EU and a dancing occasion, she managed to get a deal with the EU 51 days before the vote. However, the confidence of the country was pretty low in her, so the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party, decided to table a “No Confidence” vote. What is that? If at any point, the MPs in the House of Commons decide the current PM is incapable of their job, they may vote against the PM and have them replaced. The vote happened, the country got excited at the prospect of a new PM, the results were shown, Theresa May won, and the country went back into its state of constant rain. But the vote was a massive turning point. It was a close call that made her win, and many of her own party said she is not a suitable PM for this time. When your own party deserts you, you know the times are bad for you.
But all of the above was nearly irrelevant when the dreaded day came: Today, 15 Jan 2019, when all MPs voted for her plan. It was largely expected she would lose, but no one expected what actually happened:
She Lost.
But this wasn’t any normal loss. She lost by nearly 250 MPs! Most of the House of Commons hated her deal with the EU, and thought that no deal Brexit, or no Brexit, was better than her deal Brexit. Of course, Jeremy Corbyn being Jeremy Corbyn, he called another vote of no confidence in her. But now the fate of Britain lies undecided, without a deal, or plan B, or even a fixed PM as of this moment. We await the results of the upcoming actions of the Houses of Parliament to see what happens next.
That’s not to say that we can’t guess what happens next, but it’s only guesswork. I believe that, after the debate tomorrow, the PM will either lose or win by an extremely small margin, in both cases stepping down as PM. The next PM, a Tory MP, will have to deal with a Hard No Deal Brexit. With such limited time left, and the EU rejecting the proposal of changing the deal, either they delay or cancel Article 50, or simply try to soften the upcoming blow that is sure to happen. The pound and the economy of the UK will drop, and, with rusty relations with the EU, the UK will begin to trade with external countries a lot more. As of the transition period (2 years from Brexit, April 2019), the Republic of Ireland would be separated from Northern Ireland completely, but after renewed debates after the transition period, especially mention to the Belfast Agreement, Republic of Ireland would become open to Northern Ireland once more, around 2022/23.
UPDATE: I guess my hypothesis wasn’t that correct after all ;). As Mr Speaker announced the results on 16th January 2019, the House of Commons was filled with joy, and the country filled with a mixture of happiness, confusion and surprise.
“The noses to the left are in the majority” - Mr Speaker
Hopefully she’ll stop thoughts of No Brexit and No Deal Brexit, and give us a softer Brexit, something close to our needs.
Hopefully.
How would it affect you? What changes will occur in the future? Be sure to comment below, and press the clap button positioned to your left.