Influence of the Wagner Group in the Sahel
By Celina Schmidtke. Celina is a Master of Arts Candidate, International Relations, Security & Strategy at O.P. Jindal Global University.
About the Wagner Group
The Wagner group is a private military company based in Russia that operates and offers services to various governments around the world. Estimates indicate that there are approximately 50,000 fighters, of which about 40,000 are convicts. These figures suggest that the Wagner Group is the largest and most influential PMC in Russia. It is believed that the Wagner Group first emerged during Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Although there is no clear legal framework for Private Military Companies (PMC) in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group’s leader, is considered a close ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The objective of these operations is to advance Russian national security interests and its policy objectives. They provide the Russian government with a quasi-deniable option to pursue its interests. While the group officially claims to be apolitical, some of its members are known to have right leanings.
These PMCs can offer support in complex military and terrorist conflicts with which governments struggle. They also provide military training and support for separatist groups. They can conduct operations such as counterterrorism operations without the responsibility to protect human rights or refrain from committing war crimes and can be as brutal in their military efforts as they see fit.
As payment they often receive commercial contracts and access to valuable resources in the countries they operate in, including oil, gold or other natural resources, or in other cases strategic valuable locations.
Russia’s objectives
Russia’s engagement in Africa is driven by strategic objectives aimed at asserting its position as a global power in direct competition with the US and NATO. To achieve this goal, Russia seeks to increase its exercised influence and power abroad, including in the Sahel. This involves fostering mutual diplomatic and political support from African nations in international bodies like the UN, as well as increasing trade and investment, especially in extractive and military industries.
However, these objectives place African countries in the middle of a contest between the great powers, which has little to do with their daily struggles.
Wagner in the Sahel
To gain a better understanding of the objectives and operations of the Wagner Group in Sahel, here is a brief overview on the region. The Sahel is a semi-arid zone in Africa and is the location to a number of conflicts, resulting in loss of life, economic instability and displacement.
The major conflicts in the region include the insurgency in Mali, which began in 2012, and the Boko Haram insurgency, a Jihadist group seeking to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria that is responsible for several high-profile attacks in the neighbouring countries, such as Chad, Cameroon and Niger. Furthermore, there is a lot of ethnic and intercommunal violence that is caused by tension between different ethnic and religious groups. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are particularly affected by these violent conflicts. In addition, there are conflicts over natural resources, as competition over the many valuable natural resources in the Sahel region leads to further violence.
The Wagner Group in Sudan
Since December 2017, the Wagner Group has been operating in Sudan with the goal of providing political and military support to President Omar al-Bashir in exchange for security and commercial agreements. While the ongoing power struggle between General Mohammad Fattah al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and General Mohamed Mamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Forces (RSF) is primarily domestic issue, it has opened doors for foreign players, such as the Wagner Group, to advance their own, or rather Russia’s political interests. These interests include gold mining and a red sea naval base.
To elaborate further on the gold mining interest, a shell company linked to the Wagner Group has established a network of gold mining and smuggling operations in Sudan. The second objective is a Red Sea naval base, that Russia wanted for a long time to gain access to the Red Sea. In 2020 this objective was achieved and plans for a Russian naval base at Port Sudan were established. However, due to pressure from the U.S. these plans have been paused in 2021. Russia is now interested in a political outcome that will allow it to proceed with this plan.
The Wagner Group in Mali
Mali is home to various jihadi terrorist groups, regional Tuareg and self-autonomy movements, among which are Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JINIM), a al-Qaida Sahel associate and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (IS-GS). Despite the military engagement of France and G5 Sahel Joint Task Forces these groups have not been decisively defeated. France started reducing its force when a military junta had seized power in August 2020 and turned to the Russians. There have been reports of a significant deployment of the Wagner Group to Mali, but the presence has been denied by the Malian government due to national and international pressure.
Challenges and Solutions
The influence of the Wagner Group in the Sahel concerns many governments and organisations since it affects the progress towards stability and development in the region. It contributes to the destabilisation of the region, further escalation of conflicts and it undermines democracy.
The UN has highly criticised the Wagner Group for its conduct in Africa and its perpetuation of human rights. UN and Western states have threatened some African states with financial consequences and other sanctions if they decide to hire the Wagner Group and allow it to act against human rights and commit war crimes.
To reduce dependency on the Wagner Group and other foreign security actors, a multifaceted approach is required. This includes investing in
- national security forces,
- addressing the root causes of insecurity and its symptoms,
- increasing regional cooperation and
- providing international support to strengthen the region and make it more self-reliant.
This will make these states and situations less vulnerable to external interference.
References
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. 2022. Wagner Group Operations in Africa. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
Barry, B. and Tiassou,K. (2022, February). Macky Sally: ‘Africa must have security’. Retrieved from: https://www.dw.com/en/macky-sall-if-theres-no-security-in-africa-the-world-wont-be-secure/a-60813079
Doxsee, C. (2023, April). How Does the Conflict in Sudan Affect Russia and the Wagner Group. Retrieved from: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-does-conflict-sudan-affect-russia-and-wagner-group
Doxsee, C. and Thompson, J. (2022, May). Massacres, Executions, and Falsified Graves: The Wagner Group’s Mounting Humanitarian Cost in Mali. Retrieved from: https://www.csis.org/analysis/massacres-executions-and-falsified-graves-wagner-groups-mounting-humanitarian-cost-mali
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France 24. (2022, January). France mulls ending military support for Mali as relations with junta worsen. Retrieved from: https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220120-france-mulls-ending-military-support-for-mali-as-relations-with-junta-worsen
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Sany, J. (2023, April). In Africa, Here’s How to Respond to Russia’s Brutal Wagner Group. Retrieved from: https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/04/africa-heres-how-respond-russias-brutal-wagner-group
Stronski, P. (2023, February). Retrieved from: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/28/russia-s-growing-footprint-in-africa-s-sahel-region-pub-89135
