The Coming Tax “Reform” Debacle

Now that Trump has failed at healthcare reform, he’s moving on to changing the tax code. He and his buddies call it tax reform, but whenever you see the word “reform,” hold on to your wallet, because you are about to be screwed.

Don’t worry too much, because the odds of Trump’s winning on this are very, very small, even tinier than his hands. Much more likely is another debacle orchestrated by the losing fraud who occupies the White House for the time being. How come?

To change the tax code Trump would need to get past a filibuster in the Senate. Without Democratic votes in that august body, his bill cannot pass. Any Trump bill would likely help the already rich and hurt the poor (just like his healthcare fiasco bill), so it won’t get enough, possibly any, Democratic votes to pass. Bye bye tax “reform.”

Not so fast, you say. Couldn’t Trump get a tax bill through using that reconciliation process that only requires 51 votes in the Senate? True enough. But under the rules, a reconciliation bill would have to have no significant impact on the budget deficit over a 10 year period. How likely is that?

Lower tax rates for the rich and corporations are not going to generate higher offsetting revenue, unless you believe they also will lead to an astounding growth rate. While some Republicans still believe in this fairy tale, it is very doubtful the Congressional Budget Office which opines on such predictions does. So reconciliation won’t work.

In short, there is no path to changing the tax code the way Trump would like. He and his fellow travelers can waste time on their next debacle. Be my guest.