Statistical modeling and Bayesian inference, cognitive psychology, and sundry other things

Jan 5 · 1 min

Thanks for an insightful set of comments, as ever!

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Hi Zoltan,

I don’t have any problem, in principle, with lowering the default alpha, though I’m not convinced it is necessary. My main problem is with the argument that I think misses the relationship between Bayesian evidence (formal, related to changes in credences) and frequentist evidence (informal, related to error…

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Jan 2 · 1 min

Very interesting post, thank you!

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Hi Paul, The Bayes factor in the first example is a ratio of marginal likelihoods. It’s easy to prove; just write the posterior odds out as the ratio of two integrals, and you’ll have to correct for the prior odds in the integral over the negative and positive parameter spaces. The ratio of marginal likelihoods pops out as the factor by which the…

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