Good introductory article to this idea, but the table is still confusing and needs some further…
John Sobkowicz

Hi John,

I’m sorry if I didn’t make it clear enough (this was the toughest letter to write so far. Simplifying complex math stuff isn’t easy). But I did put at the top of the table “with Inflation and I also wrote underneath “I decided to only show the numbers that are 100% likely to succeed (adjusted for inflation).”

So to answer your question; yes, the table does take inflation into account.

However, that second question did make me scratch my head for quite a while.

I have no idea why you’d have more money after 15 years if you withdraw 5% instead of 4%.

I thought I got my numbers wrong, but nope. My (their) numbers are right.

Therefore the answer must simply be I don’t understand their algorithm.

I imagine it has something to do with them rebalancing the portfolio every month. Or, as they said “Calculations of monthly portfolio returns implicitly assume rebalancing of portfolios each month to the desired allocation of stocks and bonds.”

But I cannot give a detailed explanation.

If someone can understand all the math, please explain.

One clap, two clap, three clap, forty?

By clapping more or less, you can signal to us which stories really stand out.