Bernie is On Board- Will His Followers Follow?

Later today, Bernie Sanders will endorse Hillary Clinton, appearing together with her in New Hampshire. He will put his support behind her, and presumably end any speculation about the way this race will end in Philadelphia. In short, the primaries pretty much are now over.

This was largely predictable. Senator Sanders fought a tough and admirable campaign, but was always a decided underdog in this race. Given that he was unlikely to win, the race was always likely to end with him eventually endorsing her, and even campaigning with her. One could be dismissive of this, however one should not. Senator Sanders has managed to secure many compromises in the Democratic Party’s platform, and Hillary Clinton seems to be embracing them. Senator Sanders can honestly say he’s had an impact on the party’s direction. I would suspect that he will be willing to fight hard for Secretary Clinton now.

There is still a major question though- will Senator Sanders’ supporters follow? Polling is suggesting 81% of Sanders backers are now supporting Secretary Clinton, but that still leaves two to three million potential votes on the table. There are still “Bernie or Bust” groups planning to march in Philadelphia, vote for Jill Stein, or just write Bernie in. While it’s unclear what they will get from that, these are the last members of the flock out there, and there is a real question as to whether or not they will follow Bernie Sanders’ lead after today.

My guess is that the answer to this lies somewhere in the middle. About half of the remaining Sanders’ supporters who won’t back Hillary probably won’t, regardless of what he says. The other half are up-for-grabs. How hard Bernie Sanders wants to work to move them into the Clinton column may actually matter with some of these voters. It remains to be seen if that will happen.