I do agree with most of that. I maintain that we can’t predict the future in any meaningful sense, except in the outcome of physical laws or true cause and effect cases. You put your finger on it when you write that what we do relies on “expectations”, and that is the crux of the matter. Expectation is not at all prediction. We all, especially our leaders, act in expectation of beneficial results. I will allow that even Obama expected better results from his ill-advised policy mistakes (how’s that for bias?). What actually happens is usually quite different from anyone’s expectations.

We may all consider likely outcomes of certain present actions or conditions; we all do that in any event. The more knowledgable we are of history and experience, the easier it is to distinguish the likely from the unlikely; with the proviso that what actually will happen is most likely to be what we did not expect. Where bias comes in, and is almost inescapable, is in the selection of events each individual chooses to chain together to fashion an outcome, and those other events we choose to discard. People with different world views favor different building blocks of their idea of the future, yet they all claim the sequence is logical and likely. In their own mind, perhaps it’s logical; but “likelihood” implies a certain obedience to reality. And there lies the grounds for vigorous debate.

That is why it doesn’t distress me to find someone describing a blighted future under President Trump, having focused on his egoism and inexperience and boorishness to fashion their expectation; while I describe a blighted future under President Clinton, having focused on her corruption and venality and dishonesty to fashion my expectation. I start from my own world view, and they start from their corrupted world view (oops. Bias again. See how easy it is?).

That is why I think it is far better to concentrate on the character and quality and history of each candidate, and less on trying to forecast what outcomes are expected; or even worse, what skin color or genitalia they have. My own opinion is the country and the world are screwed no matter which one of them becomes president, but in entirely different ways for entirely different reasons. We can debate which screwing we prefer.