Rick Fischer
Aug 9, 2017 · 2 min read

There’s a little-acknowledged but important dynamic at work surrounding any major policy action, or anything else for that matter. Take the Iraq war, for example. There were all kinds of opinions expressed before the event about whether it was wise, were the forecasts of how it would turn out reliable, were any of the reasons for the war false, and many other questions. Everyone had an opinion.

Thing it, you could find people taking any and all positions on all of these questions. The other thing is, only after the event would we know the answers, would we know how it would all turn out.

The main thing is, it is always certain that some, but only some, people would have their opinions confirmed by what would transpire when it is all over and the results are in, and the others would be wrong. Does that mean those lucky people were prescient truth-tellers and everyone else were despicable liars? That’s absurd.

We can get a lot of people to tell us what teams they think will be in the next World Series and what the result will be. Some will be proved right, most wrong. Does that mean those few were telling the truth and the others were despicable liars?

Before the Iraq war, there were good reasons (and some not so good reasons) for believing certain things and expecting certain results. It would only be known after the war how it all would come out and which things would prove true. General Eisenhower was prepared with two letters on D-Day, one for if the landing succeeded; one for if it failed. Leaders have to make their best judgement on the best intelligence available and hope for the best.

What is so, so obnoxious is when after the fact and when the results are in, all those whose prior opinions are by chance confirmed by the outcome then come forth and claim that they were such insightful analysts and everyone else were such despicable liars. Those who voted against the Iraq war now strain their arms patting themselves on the back, and say anyone who believed that Saddam still had his drums of nerve gas was a despicable liar.

There are people “predicting” every future outcome of the stock market, earthquakes, economic bubbles, natural disasters, armed conflicts, everything. There will always be someone proved right simply by the luck of the draw. Doesn’t mean they are geniuses and doesn’t mean everyone else is a damned liar.

Rick Fischer

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