The not so easy task of beating Trump in 2020
We all know Trump is an unpopular president, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be easy to beat him in 2020.
First, some history. 2016 proved Democrats are not unstoppable. In ’08 and ’12, Democrats really took off with Obama, who, at that point, was the perfect candidate –a strong Democrat who leaned a tad to the left. But 8 years later, voter demographics have changed, becoming more liberal. Democrats made one of the most unsystematic moves in political history, they took a step back.
Unlike most “western” nations, America uses a two-party system, meaning third parties are incredibly unlikely to win a presidency, let alone a state or a seat in Congress. With a two-party system, every party must be moderate; there’s really not a choice. But the thing with moderates is that they stick to party lines. Republicans and Democrats both have core voters who will vote for the party every time, but they also have smaller groups that may or may not vote; Democrats have Liberals and Republicans have Conservatives. Trump is so far away from party lines, he’s so extreme he isn’t really a Republican. Instead of running as an Independent, he went for the Republican nomination and won, thus picking up all the core republican voters. Democrats, on the other hand, decided they wanted Hillary. Liberals did everything they could, which just wasn’t enough in the end. So while Trump had the core Republicans, he also had the Conservatives and other “alt-right” voters.
Hillary had the Democrats, which was enough to win her the popular vote, but she didn’t get the 270 votes in the electoral college.
So if Democrats want to win in 2020, they have to do what they did in 2008 — pick a candidate that matches the time. Hillary was seen as a weak candidate, which I think was partly due to sexism in America. Additionally, it didn’t seem as if she proposed anything new, just regurgitated or modified versions of past policies. That’s how Trump won, because people were tired of Obama.
The Democratic Party is an amalgamation of minorities, people of color, and LGBTQ people, but they chose Clinton, a straight white moderate in 2016. This time, they have probably one of the easiest ways to win in political history. Trump is racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic and xenophobic. The Democratic Party is built on all those groups. All they have to do is nominate a person of color, who is preferably a woman, to get the “white woman vote,” maybe even someone in the LGBTQ+ community.
Democrats are already throwing around names on who should run in 2020, so I’ll list them.
Kamala Harris (D-CA) — A strong senator who shows Trump no mercy. She is most likely to win the Democratic nomination because she’s a woman of color, liberal, and has the support of so-called “Clinton Democrats”
Cory Booker (D-NJ) — Another anti-Trump senator, who co-sponsored Sanders’s universal health-care. He is not as well-known, but he has support from younger Democrats.
Deval Patrick (Massachusetts Gov.) Was said to have won the support of Obama and his “inner circle.” He will most likely run as the moderate democrat, like Clinton in 2016.
Bernie Sanders (I-VT) — After failing to win the Democratic nomination in 2016, some of his supporters wanted him to run as an independent. He has all but said he would run again in 2020
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) — Basically a liberal Hillary Clinton who would lose to Trump in 2020.
Joe Biden (D) — Biden has so much support within the Democratic party, he wouldn’t even have to go for the Liberal vote.
The way I see it, it’ll come down to Warren v. Harris v. Biden for the Democratic nomination. Democrats can stand behind Harris and most likely win, or they’ll do the same shit they did last year and pick Warren. Warren will most like pick Sanders as her VP, picking up 99% of the white liberal vote.
With the way Western politics run, the 2020 Democratic primaries will be more important the the general election, since it’s really up to Democrats to vote for the right candidate in order to beat Trump.
But there’s a lot of variables that could affect the outcome of the election. Trump could lose the the Republican nomination to someone like Cruz or Kasich. Republicans could also do what Democrats did in 2016, which was vote in the other party’s primaries to get the candidate that the opposing party is more likely beat. Republicans think they could shut out Harris in 2020 so they might vote for her in the primaries.
Editor: Taylor Swingle