Race and Politics
Race, Politics, and the Pandemic
Mobilizing Voters for the 2020 Elections
Race relations in the United States were in trouble before the pandemic. But COVID-19 pulled back the proverbial curtain for everyone to see how troubled they really are.
The pandemic has intensified already-existing inequalities between Black America and White America. Black people are dying at rates that are disproportionate to their population shares. And while COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on our economy overall, the damage to Black communities is particularly bad.
The pandemic has also polarized our politics in decidedly racial ways. A Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted in May shows that, compared to Whites, more than twice as many Black respondents say that the pandemic is one of the most important issues factoring into their decision to vote in 2020.
Likewise, there is roughly a 10-point difference between Blacks and Whites when it comes to the percent of respondents who mention the “economy” or “health care” as their most important vote mobilizers. When the issue is the economy, Whites outnumber Blacks; when it comes to health care, Blacks outnumber Whites.
Given the racially-disparate impact of COVID-19 and the resulting race gap in the perceived salience of it, attitudes about President Trumps’ handling of the pandemic are similarly divided: African Americans are nearly unified in their disapproval, and White voters are more divided in their opinions.
Looking at the way-too-early horse race results, many polls show that former Vice President Joe Biden currently enjoys a two-digit lead over Trump. Results from our own survey of Black respondents, fielded by the African American Research Collaborative, show that Biden is consistently polling in the mid- to upper- 70% range with Black would-be voters, while Trump support hovers around 10% — it gets higher among African American men, which is not only consistent with Trump’s vote share among this demographic group in 2016, but is also in line with what GOP candidates tend to historically get.
It might be tempting to think that Biden’s got in the bag when it comes to that voting bloc. But it is too soon to draw that conclusion. As I mentioned elsewhere, if the election were to happen today, it would not look good for Biden with regards to Black voters: If Biden only gets between 70% and 80% of the Black vote, he loses. However, there is a possibility for Biden to make inroads during the general election to consolidate the Black vote in his favor. Despite his strong showing in Southern-State primaries, there is no guarantee that such consolidation will occur in the general election, and so it remains to be seen whether Biden can accomplish that feat.
Despite pulling ahead in the polls, another concern looms large: that the pandemic will suppress the Black vote. But the data we collected suggest otherwise: the pandemic is NOT going to block Black people from the ballot. When asked about the pandemic’s potential impact on their resolve to vote, more than half of the respondents in that poll say it makes them MORE likely to turn out, and roughly 30% say that the virus makes no difference. Less than 15% of the respondents say that the pandemic makes them less inclined to vote.
The survey me and my colleagues conducted is more than a month old now. Clearly, a lot has happened since May of 2020, and the sustained protest activity in the United States and abroad provides further evidence of Blacks’ commitment to activism despite the risks.
Some will ask: shouldn’t protesters be worried about getting sick too (or passing sickness along)? People have criticized protesters for not following COVID-19 public health recommendations. This is a valid criticism of those who are not wearing masks, but at least one study so far shows little evidence of a spike in COVID-19 cases due to the protests.
Others might ask: why push for change this way? Especially when the line between “peaceful protest” and “violent riot” is thin. But protests have their purposes, and to say they are ineffective is unfair. Arguably, every major moment of racial progress in America can be read as an act of subversion. Why? Because race relations in America are best characterized as being conflictual rather than harmonious. Black people who protest are making a decision: to change the status quo, they are willing to face conflict and some danger.
This is a fascinating racial moment we are in. White people worldwide are standing with Black people. NASCAR has banned the rebel flag. So did a bunch of southern states — including, to my surprise, Mississippi — and the same pattern is happening with military bases named after confederate soldiers and generals. And, in response to pressure from the league’s Black players, the NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is now saying “Black Lives Matter” (I am curious to see what the owners’ response will be).
Racism is clearly on the ballot this presidential election, and Black people will play the role of swing voters in 2020. The bad news is that the pandemic has intensified America’s already-damaged race relations. The good news is that racial progress need not necessarily be a partisan issue. As the old saying goes: “never let a crisis go to waste.” Whichever candidate does the best job of harnessing the momentum for social change will be rewarded. Given his neglectful (if not malicious) COVID-19 management, his reputation for appealing to the White nationalist factions of his base, and the bipartisan fallout over his response to escalating racial tensions following the police killing of George Floyd and many other unarmed African Americans, President Trump has to make up considerable ground with Black voters. His commitment to doing so (or not), along with his ability to counteract Biden’s recruiting efforts, will decide the outcome of the 2020 election.
