MEMO: Midterm Results Strengthen Nevada’s Case for First Presidential Primary

The 2022 midterm results further underscore that no state is better positioned or would deliver more for the national Democratic Party by holding the First-In-The-Nation presidential primary than Nevada. It is even clearer today that no other state meets every key aspect of the DNC’s own criteria for the early window of diversity, competitiveness, and accessibility except Nevada.

Nevada is a diverse, working class, union-strong battleground state with strong voting laws and an accessible size. Our Democratic coalition that just delivered the Senate majority in 2022 has also secured presidential victories for the past four cycles. The voters who make up our electorate represent the future of the Democratic Party if we want to win national elections: working class Latino, Black, Asian American, Native American, and white voters. Simply put, we cannot win 270 Electoral Votes or Congress without prioritizing the diverse, blue-collar coalition that Nevada represents.

Nevada looks like America — and Nevada going first will help Democrats win future presidential elections, more so than any other state under consideration.

2022 results underscore Nevada’s record of beating the odds to deliver for Democrats.

Here’s what we know about what Democrats just accomplished here. Nevada confirmed our status as the most pivotal and closely divided battleground state in the nation. We did not win every race, but we proved our ability to grind out important general election victories even in a tough political environment.

• Re-elected Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the first and only Latina in the Senate, and delivered the 50th seat for Democratic control of the Senate majority for two more years.
• Held all three competitive House races as a result of effective redistricting by re-electing Representatives Steven Horsford, Susie Lee, and Dina Titus — keeping the battle for the House majority tighter than expected.
• Flipped the Secretary of State’s office by electing Cisco Aguilar, the first Latino to hold the position, and beating a dangerous MAGA election denier.
• Re-elected Aaron Ford as Attorney General, the state’s first Black statewide constitutional officer, and Zach Conine as State Treasurer.
• Picking up seats to expand our Democratic majorities in the State Senate and Assembly.

Nevada is the only state that meets every key DNC criteria.

• Consistently competitive: Nevada is perhaps the most consistently competitive battleground state in the country: Clinton only won here by 2.4 points in 2016, Biden only won here by 2.4 points in 2020, and it was the most competitive Senate race in the country in 2022. Early organizing and Democratic voter registration in the early primary will be a significant down payment for winning this state and the White House.
• Broad diversity: Nevada is a majority-minority state and the third most diverse state in America. With a population that is 46% white, 30% Latino, 10.6% Black, 10% Asian American and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (AANHPI), and includes 28 Tribal communities, Nevada represents every crucial voting bloc. Nevada’s mix of urban, suburban, and rural communities also reflects the country’s geography.
• Working class electorate: Nevada rewards candidates who can appeal to all economic and educational levels. A 2019 study found Nevada ranked #1 in the nation for the percentage of blue collar workers, and Nevada’s 12.2% share of union workers remains above the national average. Nevada’s electorate is heavily made up of the working class, non-college educated voters who are slipping away from the party nationally and we need to win back. There is growing long-term evidence of Democratic slippage among these voters, and we have to stop the bleeding.
• Strong voting laws: Under Democratic leadership, Nevada has dramatically expanded voter access with automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, universal vote by mail, two weeks of Early Voting, and Election Day vote centers — all of which is codified in statute and will be protected by a Democratic Legislature. Additionally, Democrats in Nevada have fully funded election administration. The 2022 State of Democracy Report Card from End Citizens United // Let America Vote says, “Nevada has one of the strongest democracies in the nation with strong voting laws and protections against democracy subversion,” ranking in the top 10 with an overall A grade.
• Small, accessible size: Nevada is a state of 3 million residents that provides an early test without breaking the bank and a level playing field for all types of candidates. The state’s two primary media markets, Las Vegas and Reno, are relatively affordable and cover 90% of the state. A small state going first makes retail politics more possible, prevents presidential candidates with vast personal wealth or support from billionaires from having an unfair advantage, and avoids skewing the race for delegates.

The state that goes first matters.

The state that goes first fundamentally shapes the start of the primary, and it dictates how candidates spend their time and resources in the off-year. It creates candidate momentum, and it sets the tone for the contests that follow. That’s why it’s so important for the first state to look like America.

If we disproportionately focus on a state with more highly educated, more affluent, and less representative voters, then we are setting our party up for long-term failure. If we take a gamble on a state that is too big and too risky in the first spot, then we could skew the entire early window and undermine the primary calendar.

Nevada requires that candidates communicate with voters from every background, education, and community. Our primary process should be about finding a candidate who can win the White House, and Nevada is where you find out who can go the distance. Whether it’s our competitive races, our broad diversity, our mix of communities, our strong unions, our accessible voting laws, our affordable media markets, or our small size — Nevada has it all. We are the clear choice. We are ready.

For Democrats, choosing a president to lead America should start with a state that looks like America. This process is an opportunity to make that happen. Our country is changing, our party is changing, and making Nevada the First-In-The-Nation primary will help us all win in 2024 and beyond.