Hamilton to Ferrari — Who to Mercedes?
Which F1 Driver Will Go to Mercedes in 2025?
Well, that escalated quickly. Hamilton going to Ferrari accelerated from rumour to hard fact rather rapidly, and has left many F1 fans and commentators quite surprised.
It was not just the move, but the timing that has caught many off-guard.
Odd Timing
The timing is frankly bizarre. Hamilton is with Mercedes for 2024. The season has not started yet. Testing has not started yet. And already he’s agreed to join Ferrari in 2025. A full season of driving for one team which knows he’s jumping ship at the season’s end is a bit weird. Not just for him and Mercedes, but Sainz and Ferrari too.
It’s also something of a shock for Mercedes, which has provided him with the lion’s share of his titles, poles, and wins. Hamilton does not owe the team morally in terms of sticking with them forever.
The sport is a business, and the business of drivers is trying to maximize their wins and titles. If moving is right for the driver, that’s fair enough. But to make the move (or announce it, to be more specific) right before a season starts, out of the blue, is a little peculiar. And they now have a driver headache when it comes to replacing him.
Oscar Piastri
Piastri had a highly impressive debut season which made plain why Alpine and McLaren rated him so highly and why the former blundered by not locking him in with a tighter contract.
Over the course of the season Norris was the faster, but Piastri was not left far behind and occasionally (Spa springs to mind) had the whip hand. Given Norris’ pace, this speaks very well for Piastri’s potential.
McLaren have a really nice driver lineup and unless they’ve failed to learn an obvious lesson from Alpine they should have both Norris and Piastri locked down. However, if offered a huge wodge of cash for Piastri, and if the Aussie were offered a significant pay rise, it might work out for all concerned.
The only potential fly in the ointment might be Russell, who could be at risk of being outshone by the talented younger driver, and jumping straight from wingman to has-been without the intervening champion phase he joined Mercedes to achieve.
Alexander Albon
Albon has been driving very well for Williams for some time now and is certainly ready for a more competitive car. However, is he a potential world champion? Perhaps. Perhaps not.
He might well be a good option if Mercedes want a second driver, but replacing Hamilton with Albon might make this seem like a stopgap measure rather than a long term approach. And if a year or two rather than a long term driver is desired then there is a much better option lurking in the pit lane…
Fernando Alonso
There are very few drivers with the sort of skill Hamilton has. To be fair, Russell beat his team mate in 2022, before having an iffy 2023 and ending a fair margin behind the elder Briton. But most would agree Hamilton is a cut above Russell.
Of current drivers, only Verstappen and Alonso (and arguably Leclerc) are seen as having roughly equal standing. Verstappen is not leaving His Team. But Alonso could leave Aston Martin in 2025 and hop over to Mercedes.
He’s in the twilight of his career but still driving fantastically well (as proven by the start of 2023 when he extracted the maximum from a very good Aston Martin and made Stroll look eminently average).
And Alonso actually gets along very well indeed with Russell, so that may help avoid a repeat of the Hamilton-Alonso driver bust up at McLaren all those years ago.
I’ve seen some other suggestions, including Ocon and Vettel. I don’t think the German four-time champion would want to come back for a full year. As for Ocon, if you want harmony in a team then he wouldn’t be on my list.
Can Hamilton Claim a Title with Ferrari?
It’s been a long time since Ferrari built a car that could maintain a title challenge across a whole season. I also think Hamilton’s lost some of his deft touch in close racing.
That said, he still has tremendous raw pace, and is good both in the race (speed and tyre management-wise) and qualifying. So far, so good. But also similar to Leclerc. There are some advantages he has over the Monegasque, though.
Biggest of these is that he’s not only tactically astute, he’s far more willing to argue with (or even ignore) team calls he thinks are daft. Ironically, this replicates an edge Sainz has over Leclerc (while adding more pace).
We shouldn’t over-egg the ‘Ferrari strategy’ cake, but they do make silly errors sometimes and in a close title race that can be the difference between winning and losing.
However, Ferrari face the same problem that Mercedes will this year. Leclerc was seen as the golden boy but you cannot hire Hamilton then expect him to be a wingman.
If things are close and they’re challenging Red Bull/Verstappen, which driver do they back? Leclerc would seem more compliant but he’s been seen as the Future of Ferrari and now they’ve given him Hamilton as a team mate. And the Briton is certainly going to settle for nothing less than trying his damnedest to win a title.
Ferrari could duck the decision and just allow free racing. Except that this is mathematically foolish when in a close title battle against the Number One Driver at Red Bull.
Of course, if Ferrari build a totally dominant car they have the luxury of free racing and still winning the title. But given the start Red Bull have made with the new regulations it’s possible, perhaps even probable, they’ll retain a pace advantage over all rivals in 2026 and 2027. It took until the very last year of the old regulations for Red Bull to finally get on terms with Mercedes.
Strange Times for the Sainz Family
It’s been a strange start to 2024 for the Sainz family. Carlos Sainz (senior) won the Dakar Rally, his fourth victory and, at 61, he beat his own previous record for being the oldest man to claim the win. His son, meanwhile, has found himself effectively turfed out at Ferrari but still driving for the team for the entire forthcoming season.
Sainz is a good driver, but Ferrari are a top team and openings elsewhere are likely to be limited. Red Bull might try and nab him as a replacement for Perez, who had a great start and strong end to 2023 but a very poor patch in the middle. However, Tsunoda and Ricciardo are also in the frame for that.
Aston Martin had a great start to 2023 but showed themselves incapable of developing the car (ironic given their former shoestring budget incarnation of Force India/Racing Point was surprisingly good at development).
McLaren’s Norris/Piastri pairing is strong but if Piastri gets tempted to join Mercedes, Sainz could return to the team and reunite with Norris (with whom he gets along famously well).
It’s also possible Sainz could move to Mercedes as a straight swap (bringing information in the reverse direction too). Last season he was the only non-Red Bull driver to win, and has shown himself to be sharper than Leclerc when it comes to rebuffing daft Ferrari strategic calls. Last season, Sainz was just 6 points off Leclerc’s total.
Sainz could take a year out and then join Audi (who are to partner with Sauber in 2026). Little bit boring for 2025 but could be good for them both in the long term.
His decision might well depend on what happens with Mercedes and their free seat.
Richard
