AMD Q4 2019 Revenue
Prediction of Earnings Q4 2019
AMD Total Addressable Markets — TAM
This slide was presented at the 1 yr EPYC presentation given by Forrest Norrod. He’s the head of the EPYC side of things at AMD.

Since presenting this slide, the TAM for Datacenter has been increased to $25bn…..and the 2021 TAM increased to $29bn.
Looking out to Q4 2019, AMD will have 7nm Navi GPU, 7nm Vega20 GPU, 7nm EPYC and will be rolling out other 7nm Ryzen products….think 7nm Threadripper 64core 20,000cinebench score, 7nm Raven Ridge and a whole boatload of other Intel obliterating chips.
Intel are going to still be on 14nm and struggling with supply.
Jefferies assume a 30% CPU market capture by AMD by Q4 2019. That’s about $2.5bn revenue/quarter. That’s up from about 20% of Desktop CPU and estimated 7.5% Laptop CPU today. It’s aggressive but if you listen to the CFO at the Deutschland Bank tech conference, he’s very excited about the Ryzen ramp and it’s move into many more Laptop models and notably Commercial Laptop models.
Ryzen is being ramped massively in China and India so much so that the motherboards to support it are running low.
Ryzen is being ramped across every OEM…..they know the choice is between selling more Ryzen laptops or just not selling any due to lack of Intel chips…….guess what they are choosing?
……and what about when the 7nm arrives and AMD Ryzen becomes the ‘Premium product’?
So yes, it’s aggressive but it’s also very likely.
What else can AMD sell?
Datacenter-$25bn TAM
AMD is predicting 10% market capture by Q4 2019. Here is why I think they are underestimating this.
1. 9 current Intel Platinum Xeon = 1 7nm Rome EPYC for compute power
Rome EPYC has at least 8–10k running cost savings per year over 9Xeons (licensing, maintenance, power etc)
Rome EPYC May cost 5k…………9 Platinum Intel Xeons will cost 80k.
EPYC Rome has at least a $130k Total Cost of Ownership advantage over Intel Xeon assuming a 5yr replacement cycle for the same compute power.
2. Intel Spectre, Meltdown and Foreshadow security issues have resulted in many of its customers having to install patches that can reduce performance by up to 30%….some reports say 70% where hyper threading is disabled! Intel, in its arrogance has been quite happy with this as it encourages its customers to speed up their replacement cycles. So instead of the TAM of the Datacenter market being $125bn over 5yrs, evenly distributed to each year, we’re going to see a large increase for the 2019 Datacenter TAM as the Hyperscalers replace their faulty Xeons.
3. Intel have released details of their next Xeon with Spectre and Meltdown bugs fixed in the Silicon. It still doesn’t have the Foreshadow bug fixed as of now but we must assume it will be by release. This new Xeon boost performance by 30%…….but here’s the killer……it’s going to cost 70% more than the current top line Xeon. Yes, that’s right, 30% more performance for 70% price increase. Price gouging at its finest and it shows that Intel clearly think they are still a monopoly!
So EPYC 14nm Naples will have captured 5% of the Datacenter by Q4 2018. It performs better than Xeon but it’s main selling point is Total Cost of Ownership is $50k+ over a 5yr cycle…and a lot of this is due to the single socket license cost reduction.
Hyperscalers have been evaluating EPYC Naples over the past year and are about to ramp production…same with OEM’s.
7nm EPYC Rome is already sampling and being evaluated and is likely to be ramped up quicker as EPYC is already more widely accepted…..and then there’s that $130k Total Cost of Ownership advantage……..
So when customers come to renew next year and compare a $130k Total Cost of Ownership advantage of EPYC 2 Rome over The current Xeon Platinums their choice is pretty obvious………but when they learn that Intels newest chips with some of the security flaws fixed and 30% better performance are 70% more expensive……..and that the Total Cost of Ownership advantage of EPYC ROME has increased to at least $180k over the latest Intel Xeon for equal performance…….well, what do you think they’ll do?
So I’m pretty confident in saying 15% of a $25bn Datacenter market will be AMD’s by Q4 2019….and I suspect the $25bn TAM will increase for the reason already stated.
Chinese JV — Thatic
No idea how much royalties a quarter this is pulling in…..how about 0.5bn/year or 125million/Quarter by Q4 2019?
GPU’s
Current AMD GPU’s have about 36% market share by unit but only about 20% of the $ spend. With 7nm Vega20 for the Datacenter coming out this year and 7nm Navi for gamers late next year I would guess this figure would move up to 40% market capture by unit and 35% of the $TAM which is estimated at approx. $10bn for 2019.
Semicustom and SoC
Fenghuang, Xbox, PS4……only console not using AMD is Nintendo!
Continued lower margin but high revenue from this sector.
ML, Inference, AI
I really don’t know too much about this right now, only that it’s an $11bn TAM and AMD expects 10% by end of 2019
Automotive
No news yet but we know AMD are working on something?
Conclusion — Q4 2019
30% CPU market = 2.5bn
15% Datacenter = 1bn
Chinese JV = .125
35% GPU market = 0.9bn
Semicustom.SoC = .5bn
ML, Inference, AI = .25bn
Automotive = ?
Very approximate total = $5.3bn