Stop worrying about Globalisation — worry about Automation.

Globalisation has suddently got a bad name. It has been blamed for Brexit, the rise of populisation in Europe and the election of Trump. Recently the governor of the Bank of England spoke of how Globalisation had taken jobs away from the developed world. Globalisation has indeed had this affect over the last 10 years but Economists are incorrectly extrapolating this past behaviour and are now making incorrect predictions for the future. Automation where machines take jobs as either robots, self driving vehicles or just plain software has so far had a minor effect on jobs. But this effect is going to be the larger effect than globalisation over the next 10–20 years. In fact automation will actually reverse globalisation because factories containing robots will be built near consumers not in distant countries. So the loss of jobs will not stop but globalisation will be halted and reversed. It costs $0.75 an hour to run a robot, $4.00 per hour to pay a chinese worker or $40 per hour for a US worker. The US factories running the $0.75 per hour robots will be all in the US not in China.

Further more Automation may well cause much more social unrest than globalisation ever did. In fact this effect may be worst in countries such as China that have benefitted the most from globalisations. These countries have huge populations which will not benefit as much from automation as smaller population countries which can become richer off robots generating all the country’s wealth generation. These countries will become more inward looking and all countries will become anti-immigration — so don’t listen to the economists they have it all totally wrong.

BTW I am in favor of Automation. We will be better off and have better lives once it has happened. But polititians need to be aware of the massive disruptive change Automation will cause worldwide during the next 20 years. We all need to be prepared for this change and stop listening to economists tell us the opposite things.

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