As we enter the holiday period we wanted to offer a thought for 2016 based on our travels, conversations and work around the world during the year. If you find yourself stuck for conversation at a family gathering or company party, we offer this idea as a gift and guide to 2016!
2016: Return of History
In the summer of 1989, Francis Fukuyama, then a young academic toiling in relative obscurity at the State Department, sent shockwaves through the foreign policy establishment when he proclaimed ‘the end of history’. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, he wrote in an essay that rocketed from the pages of The National Interest to Time magazine, BBC News, and Le Monde, “marked the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”
Others soon followed with triumphal obituaries for the nation-state, great power politics, fascism, communism, absolutism, and any “viable systematic alternatives to Western liberalism.” Heady stuff for the university students of the day who were to graduate into a period of rapid globalization and seemingly endless growth.
However, as we move into 2016, it’s clear that history has returned, and that we have neglected it over the last two and a half decades at our own peril. On the surface, some of the thorniest issues we will face in 2016 — climate change, Islamic terrorism, and cyber threats — look very different from the Berlin Airlift, Cuban Missile Crisis, and the other iconic episodes that defined the Cold War. Maybe that’s why we have forgotten some of the key lessons of the twentieth century in overcoming our most intractable challenges: the importance of robust international alliances and enduring partnerships; unflinching political will; and a long-term perspective that withstands the political headwinds of the day. Instead, we now increasingly opt for tech enabled shortcuts like drones and social media to solve complex problems and are frustrated when they don’t yield immediate and more substantive results.
Perhaps the big issues of 2016 aren’t so different than previous generations. We were reminded of this as the global climate summit wrapped up in France earlier this month. Despite a century of incredible technological advances, Paris 2015 looked like Paris 1919 — heads of state gathered around negotiating tables painstakingly hammering out agreements aimed at averting another manmade catastrophe. Meanwhile, European nations have responded to the November terror attacks in Paris and the Syrian refugee crisis by once again rolling barbed wire over their borders — re-establishing boundaries that a decade ago had started to look like relics. In September, the U.S. and Chinese presidents agreed on a “common understanding” over cyber attacks, which included establishing “a hotline for the escalation of [cyber] issues that may arise” between the two countries, a system that evokes memories of the direct link between U.S. and Soviet leaders during the Cold War. Democracies strained by austerity are assaulted by a variety of demagogues all offering solutions from outside our established democratic traditions.
Yes, technology will play a critical role in reversing global warming, defeating ISIS, and protecting against cyber threats. But solving these problems will take more than that. It will also require the best of the tools we honed in the twentieth century — political resolve, taking the long view, and strong global partnerships — but that we’ve allowed to grow rusty and dull.
Because in 2016, we will continue to see the return of history — and there’s not an app for that yet!
Happy Holidays,
Roderick
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Concentric is a rapidly growing security company with unique capabilities and global reach. In 2016, as well as continuing to deliver our core security services, we look forward to continuing our unique focus on individual cyber-security and also launching Concentric Causes, which will build on our philanthropic work to date, in global health and conservation by offering our security expertise to unlock seemingly intractable challenges and protect those most in need.
