Every undergraduate who enrolls in a basic social science research methods course learns that, if the goal is to understand peoples’ attitudes, it is important to recruit a diverse sample that approximates the population.
Yet, CNN—despite its unlimited resources—inexplicably (and repeatedly) fails to recruit a large sample that represents the people of the United States.
Thankfully, CNN does publish its data (usually around a year after the survey’s results are touted by its anchors), and the latest available data, from the December 2018 poll shows just how poorly designed CNN’s polling truly is.
While Baby Boomers and those older than them represent just 38% of the 2020 electorate, they make up more than 54% of CNN’s sample. …
Predicting the future is somewhat difficult, but history has a way of rhyming, and the pre-determined outcome of the 2020 race for the Democratic Party’s Presidential nomination is crystal clear to anyone who wants to be honest with themselves: The Democratic Party has four interrelated strategies to keep Sanders from securing the nomination.
Sanders has signed at least two loyalty pledges, one to the DNC in 2018 and another to Indivisible the day after Biden jumped into the race. The pledge says, “I’ll support the ultimate Democratic nominee, whoever it is — period.”
“No Monday morning quarterbacking. No third-party threats. Immediately after there’s a nominee, I’ll endorse.” …
In science, there’s an idea called the Fermi Paradox. It refers to a fact that doesn’t make any sense at all: There exists a vast universe with plenty of planetary systems, but we don’t see any evidence of extraterrestrial life.
Yet, astrophysicists are becoming convinced that it is highly likely that life has evolved elsewhere in the universe, just as it has on Earth, where elements like carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen congealed into multi-cellular life.
The sheer number of potentially habitable star systems, combined with the fact that we exist, suggests that life is a distinct statistical probability. Organisms like ourselves have likely existed elsewhere in the universe, and they will likely exist in the future: The galaxies are probably teeming with life like our own. …
California is a blue state, but Los Angeles County is way blue: Clinton bested Trump by 50 percentage points.
Few local elected officials belong to the GOP, and only 18% of registered voters are Republican.
In Central and East/Southeast Los Angeles, the GOP has collapsed to such an extent that not a single Republican filed to challenge the incumbent congressional Democrats of the 34th and 40th Congressional Districts.
Instead, true to their generation’s yearning for new parties, Millennial candidates from the Green and Libertarian Parties are waging historic campaigns to wrest local congressional control from the Democratic Party. …
Bernie Sanders famously rejected the big donor model of campaign financing. I personally donated my small dollars to help him to do so. Going forward, a key question becomes: Can the socialist Senators’ model be reproduced by other candidates?
The first real test is the special election to fill an empty seat in California’s Congressional delegation. More than 20 candidates are hoping to either win outright or to make it to the runoff election. As of the filing deadline of 3/23, I was able to identify 15 candidates whose finances were available on the Federal Election Commission’s website. It will take some time for the F.E.C. …
3/23 Update: FEC filings disclosed since the publication of this piece show that Angulo has contributed another $1,000 to Carmona. Furthermore, S. Donald Sussman has contributed $2,700 to Carrillo. No lobbyists or big money donors have yet been identified in Mejia’s filing.
Computer scientists from some of America’s most prestigious universities are confident that electronic voting machines are hackable. Edward Snowden suggests that a post-election statistical analysis may be able to detect such a hack.
Recently, the Green Party filed for a general election recount in the state of Wisconsin, and the Clinton campaign has joined this effort. Do the reported results suggest a hack? We used publicly available data (reported results + Census 2013 data), together with standard data analysis procedures, to begin to address this question.
The Verified Voting organization provides a map that divides Wisconsin’s counties into counties that use paper ballots (22) and counties that use paper ballots AND electronic vote recording systems (50.) …
CPD Co-Chairman Michael McCurry is invested in a Hillary Clinton presidency. He donated to her the day she announced her current run.
CPD Co-Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf has donated tens of thousands of dollars to the Republican party. He has previously supported George W. Bush and John McCain.