The Blue Dot Effect | How Perception warps in the Face of Prevalence

Daniel Gilbert is a name some of you might have heard from TV or Social Media. Many know him for his whimsical retirement fund commercials, where he creatively illustrates the lifespan of our savings with dominoes, ribbons, and sticky notes. Beyond his role as a retirement fund spokesman, Gilbert is a distinguished psychology professor who, along with his colleagues, has recently delved into the intriguing realm of prevalence-induced concept change, commonly known as the “blue dot effect.” This phenomenon sheds light on how our judgments and perceptions are influenced by the prevalence of certain stimuli in our environment.

The Study

In an amazing study in the year 2004, Gilbert and his team conducted seven simple experiments to explore prevalence-induced concept change. One pivotal experiment involved participants identifying blue dots among a spectrum of colors. In the control group, where the prevalence of blue dots remained constant, participants consistently identified true blue. However, in the test group, where the number of blue dots decreased over time, participants expanded their definition of blue, even including shades of purple. This expansion of criteria was consistently observed across various conditions, such as when participants were informed of the decreasing prevalence or offered monetary rewards for consistent decisions.

The study went on with different examples, other than colorful dots. Next the participants had to identify threatening-looking faces amongst other faces/facial expressions. Same thing happened here, the number of sad-faced people decreased and participants began to see threatening faces where they were none.

After that, people were to look at job proposals and identify proposals, that are unethical, and guess what… The blue dot effect kicked in again.

One could argue that what we are expecting to see, is likely what we will see and that our expectations shape how we percieve the world, but let´s back up for a second.

A Thought experiment

What if there was no crime at all? What if there were no threats, no violence and therefore no pain?

Many sociologists and psychologists have thought about what would happen. Would people feel more secure in the world? Or would it make people more easily insecure?

So imagine everyone would just stop killing each other, there was no violence anymore. Everybody would be stoked about this, obviously. But eventually it would just become normal, it would not be anything special. Nobody would walk around day in, day out, thinking about how much safer one could walk around the streets at night. Sure people will know that, but it would not be special, at least not anymore after a week, a month, maybe a year.

What would then happen is that people would get equally upset about the smaller things or what we now perviece as “smaller things”…

Have you ever noticed how your (grand-)parents look at you, when you get upset, because your insta-page that is not loading or your internet is too weak to watch your crush´s snapchat story? Your (grand-)parents would never freak out about something like that, because back in the day they had “real” problems. Their definition of a dilemma or a problem is arguably at a lower threshold, then a millenials´ perception.

So when elderly people are talking about the “pussyfication” of our generation and that kids nowadays would not last a day or a week in their childhood-life, they do have a point. Soberly speaking what elderly people had to experience in their childhoods was brutal. Their parents were at war, with no possibility of contacting their loved ones. Nobody knew if they are well or even alive. Also the definition of racism 100 years ago was being excluded from elections, (political) parties, public transportation and basically everyday life. Today the definition is using the n-word and laughing at someone with black skin.

Think about how words changed their meaning over the past 50, 100 or 200 years. Trauma used to be experienced by people who have seen their families get shot or die due to war or the pest. Now everyone who gets shot down when approaching a woman at the bar, suffers from a “traumatic experience”. Other examples are (white) genocide, or slavery.

Implications of Prevalence-Induced Concept Change

The implications of this phenomenon are far-reaching. The study suggests that our judgments and perceptions are malleable, and they adapt to changes in prevalence. This has implications for understanding why, despite significant progress in areas such as disease treatment and poverty alleviation, many still perceive a worsening crisis. Even though the would was never so rich, never so healthy and never so equal. The prevalence-induced concept change may be a key factor contributing to our persistent pessimism.

Or in simple words: Our minds simply amplify (or sometimes reduce) our problems to fit the degree of stress, that we expect to experience.

This pessimistic thinking is what helped humans survive to this point in history. Approximately 60% of our thoughts are negative. And that is our biology´s “fault”. Positive thoughts are nice to have, however negative thoughts are worth thinking of. In cavemen years, it could mean death, starvation, homelessness or cavelessness, disease, etc. and it needed attention as well as solution-finding. Being pessimistic puts people on high alert and in a soulition-finding mode, that back then ensured our survival.

Negative Consequences

The blue dot effect can have a number of negative consequences. It can make us more likely to experience anxiety and depression. It can also make us less likely to take action to solve problems, as we may feel that the problems are too big or too overwhelming.

However, there are a number of things that we can do to overcome the blue dot effect. One way is to be aware of the bias and to be mindful of the ways in which it can affect our thinking. Another way is to focus on the positive aspects of our lives. This can help us to offset the negative things that we focus on and to see the world in a more balanced way.

Praticing mindfulness and celebrating our successes correctly are great concepts to overcome the negative aspects of the blue dot effect. And the internet is full of them… AND most of them are zero-cost.

Conclusion

The blue dot effect, as uncovered by Daniel Gilbert and his team, provides a fascinating glimpse into the plasticity of human perception. As prevalence shapes our criteria and influences our judgments, understanding this phenomenon becomes crucial for recalibrating our perspectives on progress, achievements, and the world around us.

In a world marked by rapid changes, acknowledging the blue dot effect may be the key to fostering a more nuanced and optimistic understanding of our lifelong journey.