Choose your political enemies wisely

A friend in Florida is worth plenty of enemies in other states for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But Florida’s demography suggests Trump has chosen his political enemies poorly.

By way of background, there are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs in the US Presidential election. If a candidate gets to 270 then they win. Electoral college votes are distributed among the 50 US states and the District of Columbia roughly in proportion to their population.

Florida, with a population of around 19 million people, allocates 29 electoral college votes. It is possible to win without Florida. For instance, Bill Clinton won the election despite losing Florida to George H. W. Bush. But Trump’s polling suggests that if he is to win, Florida is almost essential.[1]

There are about 15 million people of voting age (18+) in Florida. But support for Trump is only especially prevalent among White men without a university degree.[2] That group accounts for about 18 per cent of Florida’s voting-age population. Trump may struggle in Florida because this figure is similar to the 19 per cent for which the group accounts of the overall US voting-age population.

The other problem for Trump in Florida is that Clinton is more popular with Hispanic voters. They make up about 22 per cent of the voting-age population there. This is much more than the proportion of Hispanics in the overall US voting-age population, which is about 15 per cent. Additionally, Florida allocates its electoral college votes on a winner-take-all basis, so a close vote would magnify tiny advantages. For instance, Clinton’s running mate, Tim Kaine, speaks Spanish fluently. Sure, it’s a small factor and probably inconsequential to almost all the electorate. But if Trump loses Florida he almost surely loses the election. Florida’s outsized proportion of Hispanics may be one reason Kaine regularly incorporates Spanish phrases into his stump speech.

The silver lining for Trump in Florida is that Clinton’s strongest constituency is White women with a degree. And at about 8 per cent, they are slightly underrepresented in Florida, compared with the US as a whole at 10 per cent.

Of course, there is a difference between being of voting-age and actually voting. Could Trump mobilize his supporters to turn out at greater rates in Florida than elsewhere? Will Clinton’s supporters not bother to vote? While his campaign has not displayed much organizational capacity, this could be why Trump selected Mike Pence, an experienced politician, as running mate.

Trump unexpectedly won the Republican nomination, but in the process he made plenty of enemies. While in politics this is sometimes the cost of making friends, Trump’s most supportive group is underrepresented in Florida, a state that is likely to be crucial for him. Unless Trump is able to change, either in his appeal or his level of organization, Florida’s demography suggests it, and along with it the presidency, will probably be out of his grasp.