Did the Euroleague just overtake the NBA in scoring?

Relax, the world as you know it hasn’t changed forever. Gravity is still keeping us attached to the Earth and the Nuggets are still casually hitting 3-digit points figures every night.

But something strange is happening on the east side of the Atlantic. To my bewilderment I discovered that this Euroleague season was more prolific in scoring on a per possession basis. But maybe worth answering the question of just how significant is this?

First things first. Let’s set our groundwork and put some context on the discussion. The average NBA game has teams scoring 228.4 points combined, that is 114.2 points each team. Yes, some score more, some score less, but even the lowest averaging offense in the 2022/23 NBA (you guessed right — it’s the Miami Heat) will be scoring about 109 points per night. How does that compare with the 80.7 point games that Euroleague teams deliver?

Let’s get the obvious stuff out of the way: if European teams played 48 minutes instead of 40, we would get an extra 20% more game time. Clearly that has to account for something, doesn’t it? Of course. One can expect to add about 16 points and get to about 96.8 pts. That’s a bit generous though, as we can reasonably expect players to be more tired playing 48 minutes and therefore less productive, but also more complacent, perhaps making slower plays in the early quarters, to reserve energy. But let’s park that for now.

So, when we add 8 minutes to the European game, we are still missing more than 12 points — or a whopping 13% ! So how dare we claim that Euroleague has for the first time surpassed the NBA in scoring?

It is now time to break down what scoring is really made up of. And that’s not measured in points you can score in a specific timeframe, seconds or minutes. It’s more appropriately the number of times a team holds the ball, multiplied by the number of points they score in each of those possessions.

Points. Per. Possession.

That’s the analytics metric that measures the productivity of ball possessions. As I’m calculating in my Basket Stats analysis, the Euroleague measures 1.15 points per possession, compared to 1.13 in the NBA regular season (or 1.14 when we count the Playoffs). It has to do with good shooting efficiency, good passing ability that enables good looks under the rim or open threes in the perimeter, well-drawn plays from the coaches who help create the conditions for good quality possessions for their teams. It’s a mix of player talent, coaching talent and play style. At the same time, in the NBA, a 9-second offense with 1 pass and perhaps a hopeless three-point shot is not exactly rare occurrence, much to the frustration of the game-loving spectator.

And Euroleague has been improving on exactly that metric, the per-possession point production, every season for the last 4 years. This season productivity was at 1.15, last season it was at 1.11, and in 2020/21 it was at 1.08. We need to go back to season 2019/20 to see again a 1.11 production, but that was a half-season so I’m not going to worry too much about it, especially since the season before that — season 2018/19 produced even less.

So what made the Euroleague catch up with the NBA scoring efficiency? A number of factors, is the answer.

Shooting less free throws

The number of free-throws attempted has been observed to be significantly decreasing in both leagues, but significantly more so in the Euroleague. The decrease in free-throw attempts can be explained by the increasing free-throw percentages, in particular, a total disappearance of players that are really poor free-throw shooters. As Radivoj Mandić points out in his publication from the university of Belgrade, with 75% free-throw shooting, a personal foul that leads to free-throw attempts is, on average, worth 1.5 points per possession. Compared to the average value of a two-point shot (around 1 point per possession) and a three-point shot (around 1.1 points per possession), free-throws are by far the most effective. So, the logical tactical response is to reduce the number of opponents’ free-throws and only give personal fouls when those fouls are not in the bonus and thus don’t lead to free-throw attempts.

Improved shooting efficiency

Put bluntly, Euroleague teams are shooting better by the year. See below example of how the shooting percentage of 3-point shooters has changed from last season to the current. More players have increased their three point percentages than those who have regressed. Evidence shows that this is across 2P shots as well.

Convergence in game pace

It’s Thursday night, on June 1st, and we are in the 1st quarter of Game 1 of the 2022/23 NBA Finals, between the Nuggets and the Miami Heat. Jamal Murray is carrying the ball for the Nuggets offense. Nine seconds into the possession, he passes to Jokic on the perimeter, who in turn hands it off back to Murray. Murray dribbles while Jokic rolls off his defender, Murray sees him and the shot clocks shows exactly 12 seconds when Murray passes to Jokic in the paint, who immediately gets fouled. A 12 second possession for the Nuggets is not an uncommon thing. Actually the NBA finalists, at the time of writing, have an average of 101.1 possessions per game. Over 48 minutes, this translates into an approximate 14.2 seconds per possession. The above scenario is actually just an average Nuggets offense, where the ball changed hands 3 times, between 2 players, resulting into one shot (p.s. Jokic made both his free throws).

The average pace in the entire NBA season has been 101 possessions per game (of 48 minutes), exactly the pace we calculated above for Jokic’s Denver Nuggets. That translates into a 14.25 seconds average possession duration. The equivalent in Euroleague 2022/23 season is a 17.25 seconds long possession (about 70 possessions per game). That is a stunning 21% faster pace in the NBA. One can easily figure that when you spend 3 more seconds to look for a good pass, you will on average circulate the ball to an easier bucket more often. Besides, the random 27-foot three pointer 9 seconds into an offense will probably get you a seat on the bench in European basketball.

More efficient versus more athletic

We established how slower possessions and better free throw percentages have allowed the Euroleague to match the scoring efficiency of the NBA on a per possession level. This however doesn’t seem to close the gap of total scoring. Adjusting for 40 minutes game duration, NBA’s 96 possessions versus Euroleague’s 70 is still a big gap. And at the scoring rate of 1.13–1.15 it amounts to 30 points per game (per team). The answer? Athleticism. Physical skill. Endurance.

So next time you watch 39 year-old Lebron run the court for 42 minutes, and still score upwards of 30 points, cherish it. It’s a result of the remarkable selection process of the NBA Draft, but also a year-long accomplishment of the NBA teams and their trainers & physicians.

But if you are watching European basketball, you can marvel at the offensive quality, talent, game planning and tactician excellence that the Euroleague has come to deliver year in and year out.