Power, privilege and money always and everywhere concentrate in fewer hands. Those hands resist changes that would redistribute power, privilege and money.
A system that ossifies becomes inflexible, brittle, then fragile and starts to shatter of its own weight. Major US issues that have been unresolved for decades — immigration, the debt and Social Security/Medicare costs, gun regulation, and more effective CO2 efforts — are now joined by deadlocked national security/foreign policy. Democracy itself is increasingly under threat. The reasons are generally known, see List I The Faults. The cures too are known, see List II, The Fixes, both lists at the end of this document. BUT understanding the problem and knowing specific cures will not avail us. There is no path within the system to cure the system. We are like the eunuch who knows how but just can’t.
Within the system, SCOTUS will stop significant reform. From outside the Constitution, change by amendment has not been possible for fifty years because of gridlock. The Constitution’s own off ramp, a Constitutional Convention, is 18 state votes short of the 2/3rds necessary to convene. The prospect of a Convention frightens many. There are no rules for how such a convention could be conducted, or even how delegates would be chosen, so the current balance of interests would likely win power. There is no reason to think that a consensus would emerge on any issue and it would take a 3/4ths majority of states to adopt any proposals. Without a national consensus, a Constitutional Convention would be a step into an explosive unknown that would exacerbate all ambient anger, grievance, and hysteria without any possibility for resolution of issues.
Time offers no cure. Two thirds of high school graduates go to college, and perhaps 2/3rds of those with BA’s lean Democratic, but the Federal American political system will continue to exaggerate the power of the right wing for years even as the rural right wing population declines. And now we begin to see the GOP organizing and gaining among minority voters whie blue collar workers flee the Democratic coalition for GOP promises and grievance.
American political power is grounded in the states and we can no more step outside that cage to find a cure than we can step out of our 4 dimensions into the 5th and 6th dimensions.
If the system cannot be modified, then what? Prediction is impossible so let us instead look at experience, to the history we all know. Rigid systems under stress that cannot adjust to change shatter. They shatter in revolutions and civil wars, they collapse under foreign onslaughts, at best they founder and stop to progress (the Bourbons, the Romanovs, Ching China, Tokugawa Japan.) They colllapse from inside or an outside force topples them.
There are no probable solutions, only an improbable one. If the 2024 election were to be a Blue Tsunami in the popular vote and Electoral College, if 90 MAGA House representatives were culled and replaced by an effective House Democratic majority and a filibuster breaking Senate majority of Democrats were elected, reform from within the system might be possible. But that outcome in 2024 is unlikely. In 2024, 20 Democratic Senate seats will be at risk, only 10 Republican. As the months pass, despite legislative victories and the best economy of our lives, Biden’s electoral chances seem to diminish even against the worst candidate in American history. That suggests that the American public is eager for change, but almost half don’t want change that will lubricate and flex the system, catch up present needs and prepare for the future. The change the MAGA GOP wants is based on illusions of a dark, part imagined past. MAGA is about resisting change, about frozen culture, about smaller government and bigger religion.
We are on the cusp of tremendous shocks, the most imminent is catastrophic climate change. We will break through the 1.5 degree threshold soon. Climate calamities have multiplied, some indirectly caused by weather. The Panama Canal, for example, is drying up and shipping is already restricted. With climate change, disease vectors we have not experienced are driving northward — what next viral, fungal plague? Drought and floods in America and abroad will generate even greater mass migrations, which encourages frightened electorates to turn toward autocrats for solutions.
If we survive the next ten years, we might enter a period of near utopian economic growth because of AI, fusion and renewable energy, and revolutions in bio science… But ten years is a long time in American politics. How do we navigate ten years under a shattering political system that cannot keep up with the problems immediately in front of it, let alone the unknowns? How? Winter isn’t coming, it’s already here.
From Chat GPT, THE FAULTS OF THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM [revised and edited by me]
1. Polarization:
Increased political polarization has led to heightened ideological divisions that makes it difficult to find common ground and compromises.
2. Campaign Finance:
The role of money in politics has grown significantly, giving wealthy individuals and interest groups disproportionate influence over elections and policy decisions.
3. Gerrymandering:
The drawing of electoral districts (Congressional and local) to favor one party over another, results in distorted representation and reduced competition in elections.
4. Voting Access/Voter Suppression:
Restrictive voter ID laws can disproportionately affect political groups and undermine the principles of a fair and representative democracy.
5. Electoral College:
The Electoral College can result in a Presidential candidate winning the popular vote by millions of ballots but still losing the election, as seen in the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections.
6. Lobbying and Special Interest Influence:
The influence of powerful lobbying groups and special interests in shaping legislation and policies primarily benefits the wealthy and well-connected.
7. Media Influence:
Media bias, the rise of sensationalism, and the spread of misinformation impacts public perception and informed decision-making. Right Wing radio and Fox and its kin stir the emotions and hysteria of their audiences, using terror to bind listeners and increase profits.
8. Two-Party System:
The two-party system can limit political diversity and stifles the emergence of alternative voices and perspectives.
8. Gridlock and Dysfunction:
The political system’s propensity for gridlock and partisan bickering impedes the passage of important legislation and hinders effective governance.
9. Erosion of Trust in Institutions:
Public trust in political institutions, including Congress and the Presidency, has declined, eroding the effectiveness of government and democracy.
10. Lack of Civic Education and Educated ‘Thinking’
Insufficient civic education, leads to a citizenry that is less informed and less engaged in the political process. Lack of education in logic and verification of evidence leads to voters trapped in delusional balloons.
We know the cures for these ills.
FROM CHAT GPT, THE FIXES TO THE FAULTS OF THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM [revised and edited by me]
1. Campaign Finance Reform:
Reduce the influence of money in politics by public funding of candidates and limits on PACS and donations. Overturn the SCOTUS’ Citizens United decision.
2. Redistricting Reform:
Address gerrymandering by establishing independent, non-partisan commissions for redistricting. Promote transparency in the redistricting process to ensure fairness.
3. Voting Rights and Access:
Protect voting rights for all citizens. Make voting more accessible: expand early voting and simplify registration, expand the absentee ballot. Break the “First past post” two party system with rank choice voting.
4. Electoral College Reform:
Create direct representation of the popular vote in presidential elections. [COULD the electoral count be made more democratic by pooling the 2 Senate based votes of each state into one pool of 100 electors which would be chosen on the basis of the national popular vote percentages? Yes, but not in my lifetime.]
5. Civics Education and Media Literacy:
Improve media literacy to help citizens better navigate and critically evaluate information. Enhance civics education.
6. Election Security:
Implement measures to ensure the security, integrity and confidence in elections.
7. Lobbying and Special Interest Influence:
Restrict lobbying practices to eliminate the disproportionate influence of special interests.
8. Transparency and Accountability:
Strengthen transparency and accountability mechanisms.
Implement and enforce ethics rules — including for SCOTUS.
9. Break the power of the reactionary SCOTUS by increasing the number of Associate Justices to 15. This will require amending 28 USC Section 1.
