It’s very bold saying “Virtual Reality will turn out to be a dud” during 2016! It is a process being made by all… Users too, as those implementing its use. I would say that VR and AR will be THE THING in our lives and that it is going to take 5–10 years to happen… AR will indeed happen first as it has so many more immediate use cases that can benefit us all.

Once you experience what VR is and has to offer you can’t take back the feeling of “I want more of this!”. When this happens, usually, it can’t fail.

From the little I gathered, your statement about “At some point (years out) the right mixture of power, size, price, and reality technology will…” can be predicted and not remain an unknown.

technology is advancing fast enough so that it will enable the processing of the amount of data needed and the speeds of delivery to our eyes to make the VR experience smooth and lifelike in terms of visual fidelity within 5 years give or take.