Why Trump will be reelected in 2020
Of course this assumes he will not be impeached before then.
The truth is that almost everyone would like someone else to be President (except, of course, Hillary, or an establishment Democrat or Republican candidate as was proven in the election and in the primary.) So why was Trump elected? A few percent of voters actually like him, a larger percentage like his policies, but the majority of Trump voters were disgusted with the ineptitude of the government and wanted a change — any change. Hope is a marvelous thing that can easily overcome rationality.
So what’s happened? Trump was elected with a Republican majority in Congress and the possibility of real change existed (whether or not we wanted that specific change.) But like antibodies fight disease, the establishment politicians, regardless of the side of the aisle they sit on, have aligned to rid the system of this foreign entity that threatens their power. Its not by accident that almost nothing has been accomplished during the Trump administration despite a single party being in control. The partisan politics atmosphere in Congress assures that the Democrats will resist anything proposed by the administration and the Republicans highest priority is getting rid of Trump with minimal adverse impact on the party rather than achieving some of their agenda.
So why will Trump likely be reelected in 2020? A Trump reelection will require two events. First, the Republican party would have to nominate him. Second, he would have to beat the Democrat candidate. The success of an independent third-party challenger has historically proven unlikely.
In 2016, There were 22 “serious” declared Republican candidates for President. Presumably the cream of the Republican party. Donald Trump emerged as victor in the primaries because he was different and offered hope for change. Given his incumbent status in 2020 together with the likelihood that his strongest primary opponents will be ultra-establishment, and would continue ineffectual government, the Republican voters are likely show their disgust with politicians in general and therefore select Trump as the candidate again. There’s that “hope for change” thing again.
On the other side, the Democrats are most likely to select a “back to business as usual” candidate despite clear evidence that voters were unhappy with that business. There is no evidence that the Democrats learned anything by selecting Clinton to run against Trump thus they are likely to make a similar mistake next time.
Voters will be left with the choice of Trump or a candidate who will assure continued bickering, no progress on any significant issue, and continued growth in both government size and debt. They will again vote for any possibility for change by electing Trump thus signalling their unhappiness with the current system.
Is the only solution to this disaster to vote against all incumbents in all Federal elections and primaries so the parties get the message that we’re mad as hell and not going to take it anymore?